Lampang FC 2-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lampang FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lampang Provincial Stadium plays host to Lampang FC versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 9 October 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lampang FC have collected 0.57 PPG across 7 Thai League 1 outings this season: 1W 1D 5L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.57 goals per game and conceding 2.14 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.14 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Lampang FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Lampang Provincial Stadium, Lampang FC have gone 1W 0D 2L this season (3 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Nakhon Ratchasima FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Nakhon Ratchasima FC are the stronger side — 1.13 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.57). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Lampang FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 57% of games.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lampang FC 29% versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lampang FC 43% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lampang FC 0.83 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lampang FC attack 0.615 / defence 1.374 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.847 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.176. Lampang FC's attack strength of 0.615 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Lampang FC games / 37 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lampang FC 23% | Draw 28% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%. Fair-value odds: Lampang FC 4.35 | Draw 3.57 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2.00. Nakhon Ratchasima FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nakhon Ratchasima FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lampang FC 0% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lampang FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Lampang Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lampang FC 23% | Draw 28% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 42% | xG Lampang FC 0.83 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Lampang FC attack 0.615 / def 1.374 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.847 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Ratchasima FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Lampang FC xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lampang FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Lampang FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Lampang Provincial Stadium.
What was the final score in Lampang FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Lampang FC 2 - 1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Lampang FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at Lampang Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Lampang FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Lampang FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lampang FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Lampang FC a 23% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 50% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Ratchasima FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lampang FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Lampang FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score (BTTS).
Will Lampang FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lampang FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lampang FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in?
Lampang FC (all comps): 1W-1D-5L in 7 | 0.57 PPG | GF 0.57 / GA 2.14 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lampang FC's attacking strength (0.61x league average) is weighed against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. Flip it around — Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack (0.85x) against Lampang FC's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 7/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Ratchasima FC Win
23%
4.42
28%
3.60
50%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Lampang FC xG
Total xG
2.20
1.37
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
4.42
23%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.02
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
6%
17.36
22%
4.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 15.2 | 10.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lampang FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Lampang FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Lampang FC and 1.37 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Lampang FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lampang FC come into this having played 7 games, going 1W 1D 5L for 0.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Lampang FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Nakhon Ratchasima FC sit at 1.57 PPG from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Lampang FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lampang FC are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 1.14 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lampang FC have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lampang FC
Early Season
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lampang FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Lampang FC have gone 1W 1D 5L in their last 7 games (0.57 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 (1.57 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Lampang FC
0
Draws
1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lampang FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Lampang FC have won 1, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lampang FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2023, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3-0 Lampang FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lampang FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lampang FC 29%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Lampang FC) and 57% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC).
On the defensive side: Lampang FC have failed to score in 57% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lampang FC home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lampang FC play Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Lampang FC's recent matches and 57% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lampang FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Lampang FC's recent games and 57% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lampang FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC tend to score early?
Lampang FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lampang FC defy the odds to beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lampang FC beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-1 at Lampang Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lampang FC 0.83 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.37 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Lampang FC beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lampang FC attack 0.61 / defence 1.37 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.85 / defence 0.99, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lampang FC 23% | Draw 28% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Lampang FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lampang FC 43%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lampang FC's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Nakhon Ratchasima FC arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.57. Form was overturned, with Lampang FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lampang FC scored 2 against a 0.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.