Khon Kaen United 0-1 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Uthai Thani at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Khon Kaen United vs Uthai Thani encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Khon Kaen Stadium plays host to Khon Kaen United versus Uthai Thani in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 5 October 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Khon Kaen United have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Khon Kaen Stadium, Khon Kaen United have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Khon Kaen United are significantly better at Khon Kaen Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Uthai Thani's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Uthai Thani's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Uthai Thani arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Khon Kaen United have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Uthai Thani in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Khon Kaen United 0W, Uthai Thani 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 0–2 with Uthai Thani winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Khon Kaen United — key trading statistics (38 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 45% of games.
Uthai Thani — key trading statistics (38 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khon Kaen United 50% versus Uthai Thani 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khon Kaen United 55% | Uthai Thani 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khon Kaen United 1.10 xG and Uthai Thani 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khon Kaen United attack 0.683 / defence 1.110 | Uthai Thani attack 1.062 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.113. Khon Kaen United's attack strength of 0.683 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 Khon Kaen United games / 38 Uthai Thani games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 28% | Draw 35% | Uthai Thani 38%. Fair-value odds: Khon Kaen United 3.57 | Draw 2.86 | Uthai Thani 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Uthai Thani are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Uthai Thani if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Khon Kaen United 60% | Uthai Thani 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khon Kaen United vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Khon Kaen Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 28% | Draw 35% | Uthai Thani 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 53% | xG Khon Kaen United 1.10 / Uthai Thani 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Khon Kaen United attack 0.683 / def 1.110 | Uthai Thani attack 1.062 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Khon Kaen United xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Uthai Thani xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khon Kaen United vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Khon Kaen United vs Uthai Thani kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What was the final score in Khon Kaen United vs Uthai Thani?
Khon Kaen United 0 - 1 Uthai Thani.
Where is Khon Kaen United vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What competition is Khon Kaen United vs Uthai Thani part of?
Khon Kaen United vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Khon Kaen United vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Khon Kaen United a 28% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 38% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khon Kaen United vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Khon Kaen United and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Khon Kaen United vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Uthai Thani?
Record (2 meetings): Khon Kaen United 0W | Draws 1 | Uthai Thani 1W.
What form are Khon Kaen United and Uthai Thani in?
Khon Kaen United (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Uthai Thani (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Khon Kaen United's attack at 0.68x the league average against Uthai Thani's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Uthai Thani's attack (1.06x) against Khon Kaen United's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
28%
3.63
35%
2.87
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Khon Kaen United xG
Total xG
2.41
1.31
Uthai Thani xG
3.63
28%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
7%
13.47
12%
8.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.7 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khon Kaen United vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Khon Kaen United and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Khon Kaen United and 1.31 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Khon Kaen United vs Uthai Thani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Khon Kaen United come into this having played 38 games, going 8W 14D 16L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D. The sample for Khon Kaen United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Uthai Thani sit at 1.24 PPG from 38 outings (12W 11D 15L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Khon Kaen United against 1.24 for Uthai Thani. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Khon Kaen United's home form reads 5W 11D 4L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Uthai Thani have taken 1.10 points per game from 20 outings (6W 4D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Khon Kaen United are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.37 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khon Kaen United
Blended
Uthai Thani
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khon Kaen United and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Khon Kaen United have gone 8W 14D 16L in their last 38 games (1.00 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khon Kaen United at home or Uthai Thani away?
Khon Kaen United's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khon Kaen United at home: 1.30 PPG; Uthai Thani away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Khon Kaen United have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Uthai Thani — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Khon Kaen United
2
Draws
2
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Uthai Thani?
From 4 meetings on record, Khon Kaen United have won 0, Uthai Thani have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Khon Kaen United and Uthai Thani last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Uthai Thani 0-0 Khon Kaen United.
Who has won more matches between Khon Kaen United and Uthai Thani?
Uthai Thani have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khon Kaen United 55%, Uthai Thani 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Khon Kaen United and 65% for Uthai Thani. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Khon Kaen United have failed to score in 35% of games; Uthai Thani in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khon Kaen United home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khon Kaen United play Uthai Thani?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Khon Kaen United's games and 55% of Uthai Thani's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Khon Kaen United vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Khon Kaen United's matches and 65% of Uthai Thani's.
Do Khon Kaen United and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Khon Kaen United have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Uthai Thani edge out Khon Kaen United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Uthai Thani beat Khon Kaen United 0-1 at Khon Kaen Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khon Kaen United 1.10 xG and Uthai Thani 1.31 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Khon Kaen United fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khon Kaen United attack 0.68 / defence 1.11 against Uthai Thani attack 1.06 / defence 0.95, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khon Kaen United 28% | Draw 35% | Uthai Thani 38%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khon Kaen United 55%, Uthai Thani 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (38 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Uthai Thani's trading profile (38 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khon Kaen United 1.00 PPG, Uthai Thani 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Uthai Thani win broke the near-deadlock. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.