Chiangrai United 2-0 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 43%, yet in-form Lamphun Warrior provide a compelling counter-argument — this Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 9 as Chiangrai United welcome Lamphun Warrior to Singha Chiangrai Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 4 October 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chiangrai United stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Chiangrai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chiangrai United's home record at Singha Chiangrai Stadium: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Chiangrai United are significantly better at Singha Chiangrai Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Lamphun Warrior — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamphun Warrior's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Lamphun Warrior's 1.50 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Chiangrai United's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Chiangrai United have won 1, Lamphun Warrior 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 0–2 with Lamphun Warrior winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Chiangrai United in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Lamphun Warrior in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 50% versus Lamphun Warrior 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 47% | Lamphun Warrior 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.67 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.846 / defence 1.246 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.916 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.715 / away 1.130. Data: 36 Chiangrai United games / 38 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 43% | Draw 31% | Lamphun Warrior 26%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Lamphun Warrior 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chiangrai United as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lamphun Warrior (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Chiangrai United 40% | Lamphun Warrior 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Singha Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 4 Oct 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 43% | Draw 31% | Lamphun Warrior 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG Chiangrai United 1.67 / Lamphun Warrior 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.846 / def 1.246 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.916 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.715 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Lamphun Warrior xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 4 October 2024 at Singha Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Chiangrai United 2 - 0 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Singha Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 43% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (4 meetings): Chiangrai United 1W | Draws 1 | Lamphun Warrior 2W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Chiangrai United's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Lamphun Warrior's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Lamphun Warrior's attack versus Chiangrai United's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
43%
2.33
31%
3.25
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.96
1.29
Lamphun Warrior xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
12%
8.47
5%
20.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.2 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 1.29 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chiangrai United's recent record stands at 9W 11D 16L from 36 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Chiangrai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lamphun Warrior, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 14L across 36 games — 1.28 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chiangrai United on 1.06 PPG, Lamphun Warrior on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chiangrai United have managed 6W 6D 6L from 18 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lamphun Warrior's away record stands at 2W 6D 10L across 18 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lamphun Warrior's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chiangrai United are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.56 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior in 61%.
Last 36 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Early Season
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 9W 11D 16L in their last 36 games (1.06 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 12W 10D 14L in their last 36 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Chiangrai United's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.33 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Chiangrai United's record when hosting Lamphun Warrior specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Chiangrai United
3
Draws
3
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior?
From 8 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 2, Lamphun Warrior have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 0-0 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 50%, Lamphun Warrior 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Chiangrai United) and 61% (Lamphun Warrior).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Chiangrai United have failed to score in 28% of games; Lamphun Warrior in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Lamphun Warrior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 50% of Lamphun Warrior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 61% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chiangrai United cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Lamphun Warrior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangrai United beat Lamphun Warrior 2-0 at Singha Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.67 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.29 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.85 / defence 1.25 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.92 / defence 1.15, drawn from 36/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 43% | Draw 31% | Lamphun Warrior 26%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 47%, Lamphun Warrior 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.06 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chiangrai United win broke the near-deadlock. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.