Chiangmai United 0-2 Khon Kaen United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khon Kaen United at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chiangmai United vs Khon Kaen United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Khon Kaen United travel to 700th Anniversary Stadium to take on Chiangmai United. The game is scheduled for Thursday 11 November 2021, 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chiangmai United have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chiangmai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chiangmai United's form when playing at home: 0W 1D 4L across 5 games at 700th Anniversary Stadium this term (0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Khon Kaen United — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Khon Kaen United have posted 1W 0D 4L from 5 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Khon Kaen United's 1.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Chiangmai United's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Chiangmai United register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Khon Kaen United in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Chiangmai United in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Khon Kaen United in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangmai United 64% versus Khon Kaen United 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangmai United 54% | Khon Kaen United 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangmai United 1.08 xG and Khon Kaen United 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangmai United attack 0.689 / defence 1.399 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.861 / defence 1.500. League average goals — home 1.043 / away 1.218. Chiangmai United's attack strength of 0.689 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Khon Kaen United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.500 — this is suppressing Chiangmai United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Chiangmai United games / 11 Khon Kaen United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangmai United 28% | Draw 26% | Khon Kaen United 46%. Fair-value odds: Chiangmai United 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Khon Kaen United 2.17. Khon Kaen United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Khon Kaen United as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khon Kaen United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chiangmai United 60% | Khon Kaen United 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangmai United vs Khon Kaen United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 11 Nov 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangmai United 28% | Draw 26% | Khon Kaen United 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Chiangmai United 1.08 / Khon Kaen United 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangmai United attack 0.689 / def 1.399 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.861 / def 1.500 | league avg home 1.043 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Khon Kaen United (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Chiangmai United xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Khon Kaen United xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangmai United vs Khon Kaen United kick off?
Chiangmai United vs Khon Kaen United kicked off at 11:00 on Thursday 11 November 2021 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangmai United vs Khon Kaen United?
Chiangmai United 0 - 2 Khon Kaen United.
Where is Chiangmai United vs Khon Kaen United being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Chiangmai United vs Khon Kaen United part of?
Chiangmai United vs Khon Kaen United is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangmai United vs Khon Kaen United?
Our statistical model gives Chiangmai United a 28% chance of winning, Khon Kaen United a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Khon Kaen United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangmai United vs Khon Kaen United?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Chiangmai United and Khon Kaen United will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangmai United vs Khon Kaen United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangmai United and Khon Kaen United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chiangmai United and Khon Kaen United in?
Chiangmai United (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Khon Kaen United (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Chiangmai United's attack at 0.69x the league average against Khon Kaen United's defence at 1.50x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Khon Kaen United's attack versus Chiangmai United's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khon Kaen United Win
28%
3.61
26%
3.81
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Chiangmai United xG
Total xG
2.54
1.47
Khon Kaen United xG
3.61
28%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
6%
15.64
16%
6.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 11.5 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangmai United vs Khon Kaen United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Chiangmai United and Khon Kaen United expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Chiangmai United and 1.47 for Khon Kaen United, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangmai United vs Khon Kaen United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chiangmai United come into this having played 11 games, going 1W 3D 7L for 0.55 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Chiangmai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Khon Kaen United sit at 1.00 PPG from 11 outings (3W 2D 6L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Khon Kaen United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khon Kaen United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Chiangmai United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Chiangmai United's home form reads 0W 1D 4L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Khon Kaen United have taken 0.60 points per game from 5 outings (1W 0D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Khon Kaen United's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Chiangmai United are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Khon Kaen United are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangmai United have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangmai United
Blended
Khon Kaen United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangmai United and Khon Kaen United in coming into this match?
Chiangmai United have gone 1W 3D 7L in their last 11 games (0.55 PPG), while Khon Kaen United have gone 3W 2D 6L in their last 11 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangmai United at home or Khon Kaen United away?
Khon Kaen United's away record (0.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangmai United at home: 0.20 PPG; Khon Kaen United away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Chiangmai United
0
Draws
2
Khon Kaen United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangmai United and Khon Kaen United?
From 2 meetings on record, Chiangmai United have won 0, Khon Kaen United have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chiangmai United and Khon Kaen United last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2022, when Khon Kaen United 2-1 Chiangmai United.
Who has won more matches between Chiangmai United and Khon Kaen United?
Khon Kaen United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chiangmai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangmai United 60%, Khon Kaen United 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Chiangmai United) and 60% (Khon Kaen United).
On the defensive side: Chiangmai United have failed to score in 40% of games; Khon Kaen United in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangmai United home games / Khon Kaen United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangmai United play Khon Kaen United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Chiangmai United's games and 60% of Khon Kaen United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chiangmai United vs Khon Kaen United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Chiangmai United's recent games and 60% of Khon Kaen United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangmai United and Khon Kaen United tend to score early?
Chiangmai United have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Khon Kaen United in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Khon Kaen United cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Chiangmai United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khon Kaen United beat Chiangmai United 0-2 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangmai United 1.08 xG and Khon Kaen United 1.47 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Chiangmai United fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangmai United attack 0.69 / defence 1.40 against Khon Kaen United attack 0.86 / defence 1.50, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangmai United 28% | Draw 26% | Khon Kaen United 46%, with Khon Kaen United to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangmai United 54%, Khon Kaen United 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangmai United's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Khon Kaen United arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.55. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.