Buriram United 1-0 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Buriram United at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Buriram United vs Ratchaburi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Buriram United and Ratchaburi meet at Chang Arena in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Friday 25 November 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Buriram United (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 2.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Buriram United's home record at Chang Arena: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.10 lags behind their overall 2.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Chang Arena this season.
Ratchaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Buriram United's 2.60 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Ratchaburi's 1.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Buriram United, 0 for Ratchaburi and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2022, ended 2–0 with Buriram United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Buriram United — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Buriram United 48% versus Ratchaburi 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Buriram United 52% | Ratchaburi 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 1.53 xG and Ratchaburi 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.506 / defence 0.909 | Ratchaburi attack 1.252 / defence 0.770. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.174. Buriram United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.506 — their λ of 1.53 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Ratchaburi's defence strength of 0.770 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Ratchaburi have an above-average attack strength of 1.252 — the away xG of 1.34 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Buriram United games / 44 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Buriram United 41% | Draw 26% | Ratchaburi 33%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Ratchaburi 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Buriram United as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Buriram United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Buriram United 80% | Ratchaburi 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Friday 25 Nov 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 41% | Draw 26% | Ratchaburi 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Buriram United 1.53 / Ratchaburi 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.506 / def 0.909 | Ratchaburi attack 1.252 / def 0.770 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Ratchaburi xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Buriram United vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 11:00 on Friday 25 November 2022 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Ratchaburi?
Buriram United 1 - 0 Ratchaburi.
Where is Buriram United vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Ratchaburi part of?
Buriram United vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 41% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Buriram United and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Ratchaburi?
Record (2 meetings): Buriram United 2W | Draws 0 | Ratchaburi 0W.
What form are Buriram United and Ratchaburi in?
Buriram United (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Ratchaburi (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Buriram United's attacking strength (1.51x league average) is weighed against Ratchaburi's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. Flip it around — Ratchaburi's attack (1.25x) against Buriram United's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
41%
2.43
26%
3.81
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Buriram United xG
Total xG
2.87
1.34
Ratchaburi xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
11%
9.25
7%
14.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.6 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Buriram United and 1.34 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Buriram United's recent record stands at 30W 8D 6L from 44 games, a 2.23 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi, meanwhile, have gone 17W 14D 13L across 44 games — 1.48 PPG, with D-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Buriram United by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ratchaburi heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Buriram United have managed 15W 4D 2L from 21 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ratchaburi's away record stands at 6W 6D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Buriram United are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.20 scored and 0.98 conceded. Buriram United's scoring rate against Ratchaburi's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 30W 8D 6L in their last 44 games (2.23 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 17W 14D 13L in their last 44 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or Ratchaburi away?
Buriram United's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 2.33 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Buriram United or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Buriram United won 6-0 on 8 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Buriram United have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Buriram United
3
Draws
1
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Ratchaburi?
From 10 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 6, Ratchaburi have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Ratchaburi 2-2 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Buriram United and Ratchaburi?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Buriram United 57%, Ratchaburi 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Buriram United) and 29% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Ratchaburi in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Buriram United's recent matches and 38% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Buriram United vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Buriram United's recent games and 29% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Buriram United and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Buriram United have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Buriram United edge out Ratchaburi 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Ratchaburi 1-0 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 1.53 xG and Ratchaburi 1.34 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ratchaburi landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.51 / defence 0.91 against Ratchaburi attack 1.25 / defence 0.77, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 41% | Draw 26% | Ratchaburi 33%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 52%, Ratchaburi 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Buriram United's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.48. Form held, and they took the win. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.