Buriram United 2-0 Muangthong United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Buriram United at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Buriram United vs Muangthong United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Buriram United and Muangthong United meet at Chang Arena in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 31 October 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Buriram United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 7W 1D 1L from 9 games (2.44 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.89 goals per game, with 0.56 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.56 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 9 games (56%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Chang Arena, Buriram United have gone 4W 1D 0L this season (5 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chang Arena.
Muangthong United (all games): 4W 3D 2L across 9 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.67 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.33. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Muangthong United away from home this season: 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.67 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Buriram United's 2.44 PPG return is 0.77 points per game ahead of Muangthong United's 1.67 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Buriram United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
Muangthong United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Buriram United 33% versus Muangthong United 78%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Buriram United 44% | Muangthong United 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 1.61 xG and Muangthong United 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.305 / defence 0.842 | Muangthong United attack 0.749 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.029 / away 1.329. Buriram United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.305 — their λ of 1.61 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 9 Buriram United games / 9 Muangthong United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Buriram United 56% | Draw 25% | Muangthong United 19%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Muangthong United 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Buriram United are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Buriram United 40% | Muangthong United 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Muangthong United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 56% | Draw 25% | Muangthong United 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 45% | xG Buriram United 1.61 / Muangthong United 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.305 / def 0.842 | Muangthong United attack 0.749 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.029 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Muangthong United xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Muangthong United kick off?
Buriram United vs Muangthong United kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Muangthong United?
Buriram United 2 - 0 Muangthong United.
Where is Buriram United vs Muangthong United being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Muangthong United part of?
Buriram United vs Muangthong United is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Muangthong United?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 56% chance of winning, Muangthong United a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Muangthong United?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Buriram United and Muangthong United will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Muangthong United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Muangthong United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Buriram United and Muangthong United in?
Buriram United (all comps): 7W-1D-1L in 9 | 2.44 PPG | GF 1.89 / GA 0.56 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Muangthong United (all comps): 4W-3D-2L in 9 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Buriram United's attack at 1.30x the league average against Muangthong United's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Muangthong United's attack (0.75x) against Buriram United's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
56%
1.80
25%
4.02
19%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Buriram United xG
Total xG
2.45
0.84
Muangthong United xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
5.13
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
4%
25.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 11.7 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Muangthong United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Muangthong United expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Buriram United and 0.84 for Muangthong United, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Muangthong United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Buriram United's recent record stands at 7W 1D 1L from 9 games, a 2.44 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Muangthong United, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 2L across 9 games — 1.67 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Buriram United by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Muangthong United heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Buriram United have managed 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.44 PPG overall — Buriram United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Muangthong United's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Muangthong United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Buriram United are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game recently; Muangthong United are on 1.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Muangthong United in 78%.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Blended
Muangthong United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Muangthong United in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 7W 1D 1L in their last 9 games (2.44 PPG), while Muangthong United have gone 4W 3D 2L in their last 9 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or Muangthong United away?
Buriram United's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 3.00 PPG; Muangthong United away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Buriram United or Muangthong United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, Muangthong United in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Buriram United have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Buriram United won 0-5 on 22 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Buriram United have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Muangthong United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Buriram United
3
Draws
0
Muangthong United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Muangthong United?
From 10 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 7, Muangthong United have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Muangthong United last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Buriram United 2-1 Muangthong United.
Who has won more matches between Buriram United and Muangthong United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Buriram United 50%, Muangthong United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Buriram United and 50% for Muangthong United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Muangthong United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Muangthong United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Buriram United's recent matches and 50% of Muangthong United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Buriram United vs Muangthong United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Buriram United's matches and 50% of Muangthong United's.
Do Buriram United and Muangthong United tend to score early?
Buriram United have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Muangthong United in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Buriram United cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Muangthong United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Muangthong United 2-0 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 1.61 xG and Muangthong United 0.84 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Muangthong United landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.30 / defence 0.84 against Muangthong United attack 0.75 / defence 1.20, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 56% | Draw 25% | Muangthong United 19%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 44%, Muangthong United 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Buriram United's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.
Muangthong United's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.67. That form edge translated into the three points. Muangthong United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.