Yverdon Sport 4-1 Servette FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Servette FC at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Yverdon Sport host Servette FC at Stade de la Maladière in Super League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 August 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Yverdon Sport have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D W L. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 2.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.75 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Yverdon Sport have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Servette FC — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Servette FC have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Servette FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Servette FC's 2.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Yverdon Sport's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Yverdon Sport trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Servette FC trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yverdon Sport 75% and Servette FC 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yverdon Sport 75% | Servette FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yverdon Sport 1.49 xG and Servette FC 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yverdon Sport attack 0.948 / defence 1.208 | Servette FC attack 1.059 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.338. Data: 4 Yverdon Sport games / 40 Servette FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 31% | Draw 29% | Servette FC 40%. Fair-value odds: Yverdon Sport 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Servette FC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Servette FC as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Servette FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Yverdon Sport 75% | Servette FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (4 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade de la Maladière • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Aug 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 31% | Draw 29% | Servette FC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 67% | xG Yverdon Sport 1.49 / Servette FC 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Yverdon Sport attack 0.948 / def 1.208 | Servette FC attack 1.059 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.720 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Servette FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Yverdon Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Servette FC xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC kick off?
Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Stade de la Maladière.
What was the final score in Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC?
Yverdon Sport 4 - 1 Servette FC.
Where is Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Maladière.
What competition is Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC part of?
Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC?
Our statistical model gives Yverdon Sport a 31% chance of winning, Servette FC a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Servette FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Yverdon Sport and Servette FC will score (BTTS).
Will Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and Servette FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Yverdon Sport and Servette FC in?
Yverdon Sport (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 2.75 | L5 L-D-W-L. Servette FC (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Yverdon Sport's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Servette FC's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Servette FC's attack versus Yverdon Sport's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (4/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Servette FC Win
31%
3.27
29%
3.39
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Yverdon Sport xG
Total xG
3.21
1.71
Servette FC xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
18%
5.54
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
6%
18.10
9%
11.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.4 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Yverdon Sport and Servette FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Yverdon Sport and 1.71 for Servette FC, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Yverdon Sport come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 1D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Yverdon Sport, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Servette FC sit at 1.50 PPG from 4 outings (1W 3D 0L), a run that reads W-D-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Servette FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Servette FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Yverdon Sport — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Yverdon Sport are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game recently; Servette FC are on 1.75 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yverdon Sport have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Servette FC in 100%.
Last 4 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yverdon Sport
Early Season
Servette FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yverdon Sport and Servette FC in coming into this match?
Yverdon Sport have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Servette FC have gone 1W 3D 0L in their last 4 (1.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2023, when Yverdon Sport won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Yverdon Sport's record when hosting Servette FC specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Yverdon Sport
1
Draws
2
Servette FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and Servette FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Yverdon Sport have won 3, Servette FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Yverdon Sport and Servette FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Servette FC 2-3 Yverdon Sport.
Who has won more matches between Yverdon Sport and Servette FC?
Yverdon Sport have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Servette FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Yverdon Sport at 75%, Servette FC at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Yverdon Sport and 50% for Servette FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yverdon Sport home games / Servette FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yverdon Sport play Servette FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Yverdon Sport's games and 100% of Servette FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yverdon Sport vs Servette FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Yverdon Sport's matches and 50% of Servette FC's.
Do Yverdon Sport and Servette FC tend to score early?
Yverdon Sport have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Servette FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Yverdon Sport run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Servette FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yverdon Sport beat Servette FC 4-1 at Stade de la Maladière, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yverdon Sport 1.49 xG and Servette FC 1.71 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Yverdon Sport beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yverdon Sport attack 0.95 / defence 1.21 against Servette FC attack 1.06 / defence 0.92, drawn from 4/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Yverdon Sport 31% | Draw 29% | Servette FC 40%, with Servette FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Yverdon Sport win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yverdon Sport 75%, Servette FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 88%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Servette FC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Servette FC arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Yverdon Sport winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Yverdon Sport scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.75 average — tighter than their form line. Servette FC shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.