Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1-1 FC Basel 1893 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Stade Lausanne-Ouchy face FC Basel 1893.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Olympique de la Pontaise plays host to Stade Lausanne-Ouchy versus FC Basel 1893 in Super League (matchday 16). Kick-off: Saturday 2 December 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's home record over their last 8 home games: 2W 3D 3L (1.12 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Basel 1893 have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
FC Basel 1893's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's last 8 home games and FC Basel 1893's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 75% of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's games and 80% of FC Basel 1893's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, 0 for FC Basel 1893 and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2023, ended Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3–0 FC Basel 1893 — a Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — key trading statistics (last 16 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
FC Basel 1893 — key trading statistics (last 16 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 62% and FC Basel 1893 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 69% | FC Basel 1893 81%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.93 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.811 / defence 1.514 | FC Basel 1893 attack 0.832 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.800 / away 1.394. FC Basel 1893's defence rating of 1.324 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's projected output up. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's defence rating of 1.514 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Basel 1893's projected output up. Data: built from Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's last 14 games and FC Basel 1893's last 50.
Result probabilities: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 42% | Draw 23% | FC Basel 1893 35%. Fair-value odds: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2.39 | Draw 4.28 | FC Basel 1893 2.88. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 72% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% — both xG figures (1.93 / 1.75) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stade Lausanne-Ouchy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.69 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's last 8 home games and FC Basel 1893's last 10 away games) averaging 4.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 75% (last 8 home games) | FC Basel 1893 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Basel 1893 | Competition: Super League, matchday 16 | Venue: Stade Olympique de la Pontaise • Kick-off: Saturday 2 December 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 42% | Draw 23% | FC Basel 1893 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% (Under 29%) | BTTS Yes 72% (No 28%) | xG Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.93 / FC Basel 1893 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.811 / def 1.514 | FC Basel 1893 attack 0.832 / def 1.324 | league avg home 1.800 / away 1.394 • Poisson stance: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy xG
Expected Goals
1.75
FC Basel 1893 xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Basel 1893 FAQs
What time does Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Basel 1893 kick off?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Basel 1893 kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Stade Olympique de la Pontaise.
What was the final score in Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Basel 1893?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1 - 1 FC Basel 1893.
Where is Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Olympique de la Pontaise.
What competition is Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Basel 1893 part of?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Basel 1893 is a Super League fixture (matchday 16) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Basel 1893?
Our statistical model gives Stade Lausanne-Ouchy a 42% chance of winning, FC Basel 1893 a 35% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Stade Lausanne-Ouchy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Basel 1893?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and FC Basel 1893 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Basel 1893 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's attack rating (0.81) and FC Basel 1893's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Basel 1893's attack (0.83x) against Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's defence (1.51x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's last 14 games and FC Basel 1893's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Win
42%
2.39
23%
4.28
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy xG
Total xG
3.69
1.75
FC Basel 1893 xG
2.39
42%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.40
28%
BTTS No
3.53
Clean Sheet
17%
5.78
14%
6.92
Win to Nil
7%
13.80
5%
19.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 8.5 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Basel 1893 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Basel 1893?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and FC Basel 1893 expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and 1.75 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 3.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Basel 1893?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy come into this having played 16 games, going 4W 4D 8L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, FC Basel 1893 sit at 0.94 PPG from 16 outings (4W 3D 9L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy against 0.94 for FC Basel 1893. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's home form reads 1W 3D 3L across their last 7 home games, a 0.86 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Basel 1893 have taken 0.14 points per game from their last 7 away games (0W 1D 6L). That's a step down from their 0.94 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Basel 1893's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 2.06 conceded per game recently; FC Basel 1893 are on 1.50 scored and 2.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; FC Basel 1893 in 69%.
Last 16 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Blended
FC Basel 1893
Blended
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (Home) vs FC Basel 1893 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Blended
FC Basel 1893
Blended
❓ Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Basel 1893 Form FAQs
What form are Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and FC Basel 1893 in coming into this match?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have gone 4W 4D 8L in their last 16 games (1.00 PPG), while FC Basel 1893 have gone 4W 3D 9L in their last 16 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at home or FC Basel 1893 away?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's home record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at home: 0.86 PPG; FC Basel 1893 away: 0.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and FC Basel 1893, the earliest from October 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 14 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
FC Basel 1893 have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy won FC Basel 1893 0-3 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy on 1 Oct 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Basel 1893 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1
Draws
2
FC Basel 1893
Recent Meetings
❓ Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Basel 1893 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and FC Basel 1893?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have won 1, FC Basel 1893 have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and FC Basel 1893 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 May 2024: FC Basel 1893 2-0 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
Who has won more matches between Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and FC Basel 1893?
FC Basel 1893 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, 71% for FC Basel 1893 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and 100% for FC Basel 1893. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have failed to score in 29% of games; FC Basel 1893 in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Lausanne-Ouchy home games / FC Basel 1893 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs FC Basel 1893 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and FC Basel 1893 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's games and 71% of FC Basel 1893's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and FC Basel 1893 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's matches and 100% of FC Basel 1893's.
Do Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and FC Basel 1893 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's recent matches and 100% of FC Basel 1893's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and FC Basel 1893 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Olympique de la Pontaise, Regular Season - 16, as Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and FC Basel 1893 drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.93 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.75 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.81 / defence 1.51 against FC Basel 1893 attack 0.83 / defence 1.32, drawn from 14/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 42% | Draw 23% | FC Basel 1893 35%, with Stade Lausanne-Ouchy to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 69%, FC Basel 1893 81%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.00 PPG, FC Basel 1893 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.