Servette FC 3-0 FC Sion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Servette FC at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Servette FC vs FC Sion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de Genève plays host to Servette FC versus FC Sion in Super League (matchday 10). Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 20:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Servette FC have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Servette FC at home: 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
FC Sion's record over their last 9 games: 3W 3D 3L (1.33 PPG). Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.22 per game is modest, conceding 0.89 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings (33%).
When travelling, FC Sion have posted 1W 0D 3L from their last 4 away outings — 0.75 PPG. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.75 is notably below their overall 1.33 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form ledger tips toward Servette FC. A 0.67 PPG lead over FC Sion (2.00 vs 1.33) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Servette FC edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 13 May 2023, ended Servette FC 5–0 FC Sion — a Servette FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Servette FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 9 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
FC Sion half-time and goal-timing data (last 9 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Servette FC 67% versus FC Sion 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Servette FC 67% | FC Sion 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Servette FC 1.66 xG and FC Sion 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Servette FC attack 1.007 / defence 1.195 | FC Sion attack 0.741 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.193. FC Sion's attack rating of 0.741 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. Data: built from Servette FC's last 42 games and FC Sion's last 9.
Result probabilities: Servette FC 51% | Draw 24% | FC Sion 24%. Fair-value odds: Servette FC 1.95 | Draw 4.09 | FC Sion 4.13. Servette FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Servette FC as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Servette FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Servette FC 50% (last 10 home games) | FC Sion 50% (last 4 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Servette FC vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, matchday 10 | Venue: Stade de Genève • Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Servette FC 51% | Draw 24% | FC Sion 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Servette FC 1.66 / FC Sion 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Servette FC attack 1.007 / def 1.195 | FC Sion attack 0.741 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Servette FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Servette FC xG
Expected Goals
1.06
FC Sion xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Servette FC vs FC Sion FAQs
What time does Servette FC vs FC Sion kick off?
Servette FC vs FC Sion kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Stade de Genève.
What was the final score in Servette FC vs FC Sion?
Servette FC 3 - 0 FC Sion.
Where is Servette FC vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Genève.
What competition is Servette FC vs FC Sion part of?
Servette FC vs FC Sion is a Super League fixture (matchday 10) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Servette FC vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives Servette FC a 51% chance of winning, FC Sion a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Servette FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Servette FC vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Servette FC and FC Sion will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Servette FC vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Servette FC's attack rating (1.01) and FC Sion's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Sion's attack (0.74x) against Servette FC's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from Servette FC's last 42 games and FC Sion's last 9 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Servette FC Win
51%
1.95
24%
4.09
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Servette FC xG
Total xG
2.71
1.06
FC Sion xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
5%
21.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.6 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Servette FC vs FC Sion Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Servette FC vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Servette FC and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Servette FC and 1.06 for FC Sion, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Servette FC vs FC Sion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 9 outings, Servette FC have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 5W 2D 2L record — L-W-D-W-D across the most recent five.
FC Sion's form line: 3W 3D 3L from 9 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-D.
Put side by side, Servette FC are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Sion.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Servette FC have posted 2.25 PPG from their last 4 home games (3W 0D 1L).
On the road, FC Sion have gone 1W 0D 3L from their last 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Sion's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Servette FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Servette FC are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.22 scored and 0.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Servette FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Servette FC
Blended
FC Sion
Blended
Servette FC (Home) vs FC Sion (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Servette FC
Blended
FC Sion
Blended
❓ Servette FC vs FC Sion Form FAQs
What form are Servette FC and FC Sion in coming into this match?
Servette FC have gone 5W 2D 2L in their last 9 games (1.89 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 3W 3D 3L in their last 9 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Servette FC at home or FC Sion away?
Servette FC's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Servette FC at home: 2.25 PPG; FC Sion away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Servette FC or FC Sion been keeping clean sheets recently?
Servette FC have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, FC Sion in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to January 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Servette FC won Servette FC 5-0 FC Sion on 13 May 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Servette FC have gone 3W 3D 0L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Sion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Servette FC
6
Draws
0
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ Servette FC vs FC Sion H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Servette FC and FC Sion?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Servette FC have won 4, FC Sion have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Servette FC and FC Sion last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Servette FC 3-0 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between Servette FC and FC Sion?
Servette FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Servette FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Servette FC 50%, FC Sion 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Servette FC and 50% for FC Sion. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Sion in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Servette FC home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Servette FC vs FC Sion Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Servette FC and FC Sion matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Servette FC's recent matches and 50% of FC Sion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Servette FC and FC Sion matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Servette FC's matches and 50% of FC Sion's.
Do Servette FC and FC Sion matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Servette FC's recent matches and 75% of FC Sion's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Servette FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Sion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Servette FC beat FC Sion 3-0 at Stade de Genève, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Servette FC 1.66 xG and FC Sion 1.06 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Servette FC beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Sion landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Servette FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.20 against FC Sion attack 0.74 / defence 1.10, drawn from 42/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Servette FC 51% | Draw 24% | FC Sion 24%, with Servette FC to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Servette FC 67%, FC Sion 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Servette FC's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Sion's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Servette FC arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Servette FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line. FC Sion (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.