Lausanne 1-1 Servette FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lausanne at 36%, yet in-form Servette FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Lausanne vs Servette FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Servette FC make the trip to Stade de la Tuilière to face Lausanne in Super League, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 December 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Lausanne's overall Super League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lausanne have posted 4W 2D 2L at Stade de la Tuilière — 1.75 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Servette FC (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Super League outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Servette FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Servette FC's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Servette FC are 0.80 PPG clear of Lausanne in recent Super League fixtures (2.30 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Lausanne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Servette FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 75% and Servette FC 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lausanne 81% | Servette FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.21 xG and Servette FC 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.936 / defence 0.919 | Servette FC attack 0.961 / defence 0.729. League average goals — home 1.768 / away 1.322. Servette FC's defence strength of 0.729 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 16 Lausanne games / 52 Servette FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lausanne 36% | Draw 29% | Servette FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Servette FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lausanne are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Servette FC (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lausanne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lausanne 62% | Servette FC 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs Servette FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Dec 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 36% | Draw 29% | Servette FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Lausanne 1.21 / Servette FC 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 0.936 / def 0.919 | Servette FC attack 0.961 / def 0.729 | league avg home 1.768 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Servette FC xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lausanne vs Servette FC kick off?
Lausanne vs Servette FC kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 9 December 2023 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs Servette FC?
Lausanne 1 - 1 Servette FC.
Where is Lausanne vs Servette FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs Servette FC part of?
Lausanne vs Servette FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs Servette FC?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 36% chance of winning, Servette FC a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs Servette FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Lausanne and Servette FC will score (BTTS).
Will Lausanne vs Servette FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and Servette FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lausanne and Servette FC in?
Lausanne (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Servette FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lausanne's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Servette FC's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Servette FC's attack (0.96x) against Lausanne's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 16/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
36%
2.75
29%
3.45
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Lausanne xG
Total xG
2.37
1.17
Servette FC xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
11%
8.83
10%
9.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.9 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs Servette FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Lausanne and Servette FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Lausanne and 1.17 for Servette FC, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs Servette FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lausanne come into this having played 16 games, going 5W 4D 7L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Servette FC sit at 1.81 PPG from 16 outings (8W 5D 3L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Servette FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Servette FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Lausanne — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Lausanne's home form reads 4W 2D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Lausanne are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Servette FC have taken 1.75 points per game from 8 outings (4W 2D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lausanne are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Servette FC are on 1.69 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Servette FC in 62%.
Last 16 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Blended
Servette FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lausanne and Servette FC in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 5W 4D 7L in their last 16 games (1.19 PPG), while Servette FC have gone 8W 5D 3L in their last 16 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or Servette FC away?
Lausanne's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 1.75 PPG; Servette FC away: 1.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lausanne have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Servette FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lausanne
3
Draws
5
Servette FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and Servette FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Lausanne have won 2, Servette FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and Servette FC last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Servette FC 2-0 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and Servette FC?
Servette FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Servette FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lausanne 62%, Servette FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Lausanne) and 25% (Servette FC).
On the defensive side: Lausanne keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Servette FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / Servette FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lausanne play Servette FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Lausanne's games and 50% of Servette FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lausanne vs Servette FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Lausanne's recent games and 25% of Servette FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lausanne and Servette FC tend to score early?
Lausanne have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Servette FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lausanne and Servette FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 17, as Lausanne and Servette FC drew 1-1 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.21 xG and Servette FC 1.17 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.94 / defence 0.92 against Servette FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.73, drawn from 16/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 36% | Draw 29% | Servette FC 35%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 81%, Servette FC 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Servette FC's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Servette FC arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.