Lausanne 0-0 FC Basel 1893 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lausanne at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Relegation Round - 2 as Lausanne welcome FC Basel 1893 to Stade de la Tuilière. Kick-off is set for Friday 10 May 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Lausanne have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Stade de la Tuilière, Lausanne have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Basel 1893 stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Basel 1893 away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lausanne 1.50 PPG, FC Basel 1893 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Lausanne, 0 for FC Basel 1893 and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 2–1 with Lausanne winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lausanne in-play and half-time data (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
FC Basel 1893 in-play and half-time data (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 65% and FC Basel 1893 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lausanne 59% | FC Basel 1893 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.53 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.995 / defence 1.039 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.035 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.107. Data: 33 Lausanne games / 69 FC Basel 1893 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lausanne 45% | Draw 25% | FC Basel 1893 30%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | FC Basel 1893 3.33. Lausanne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lausanne are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lausanne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Lausanne 50% | FC Basel 1893 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 45% | Draw 25% | FC Basel 1893 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Lausanne 1.53 / FC Basel 1893 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 0.995 / def 1.039 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.035 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
1.19
FC Basel 1893 xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 kick off?
Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 10 May 2024 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Lausanne 0 - 0 FC Basel 1893.
Where is Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 part of?
Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 45% chance of winning, FC Basel 1893 a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 will score (BTTS).
Will Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC Basel 1893?
Record (1 meetings): Lausanne 1W | Draws 0 | FC Basel 1893 0W.
What form are Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 in?
Lausanne (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lausanne's attack rating (0.99) and FC Basel 1893's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Basel 1893's attack versus Lausanne's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
45%
2.22
25%
3.96
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Lausanne xG
Total xG
2.72
1.19
FC Basel 1893 xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
14%
7.29
6%
15.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.0 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Lausanne and 1.19 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 34 outings, Lausanne have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 10W 10D 14L record — D-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
FC Basel 1893's form line: 11W 8D 15L from 34 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lausanne on 1.18 PPG, FC Basel 1893 on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lausanne have posted 1.62 PPG from 16 outings (7W 5D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Lausanne are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Basel 1893 have gone 5W 3D 8L from 16 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lausanne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lausanne are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; FC Basel 1893 are on 1.24 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Current Season
FC Basel 1893
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 10W 10D 14L in their last 34 games (1.18 PPG), while FC Basel 1893 have gone 11W 8D 15L in their last 34 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or FC Basel 1893 away?
Lausanne's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 1.62 PPG; FC Basel 1893 away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Lausanne won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lausanne's record when hosting FC Basel 1893 specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lausanne
4
Draws
2
FC Basel 1893
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC Basel 1893?
From 10 meetings on record, Lausanne have won 4, FC Basel 1893 have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when FC Basel 1893 0-1 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and FC Basel 1893?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lausanne 56%, FC Basel 1893 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Lausanne) and 56% (FC Basel 1893).
On the defensive side: Lausanne keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / FC Basel 1893 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lausanne play FC Basel 1893?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Lausanne's games and 56% of FC Basel 1893's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Lausanne's recent games and 56% of FC Basel 1893's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 tend to score early?
Lausanne have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, FC Basel 1893 in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lausanne's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 finished level at 0-0 at Stade de la Tuilière, Relegation Round - 2, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.53 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.19 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lausanne fell 1.5 short of their projected output. FC Basel 1893 landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.99 / defence 1.04 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.03 / defence 1.06, drawn from 33/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 45% | Draw 25% | FC Basel 1893 30%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 59%, FC Basel 1893 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lausanne 1.18 PPG, FC Basel 1893 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lausanne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.