FC Thun 3-1 FC Basel 1893 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Thun at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 33 as FC Thun welcome FC Basel 1893 to Stockhorn Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Thun stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Thun's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Stockhorn Arena this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, FC Basel 1893 have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Basel 1893's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
FC Thun are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Thun register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, FC Basel 1893 in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for FC Thun, 1 for FC Basel 1893 and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with FC Thun winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Thun in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
FC Basel 1893 in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Thun 72% and FC Basel 1893 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Thun 78% | FC Basel 1893 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Thun 2.48 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Thun attack 1.357 / defence 0.929 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.006 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.433. FC Thun carry an above-average attack strength of 1.357 — their λ of 2.48 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 32 FC Thun games / 65 FC Basel 1893 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Thun 61% | Draw 21% | FC Basel 1893 18%. Fair-value odds: FC Thun 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | FC Basel 1893 5.56. The model has a clear lean to FC Thun (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.82. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.82 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.48 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Thun are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: FC Thun 70% | FC Basel 1893 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stockhorn Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Thun 61% | Draw 21% | FC Basel 1893 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 69% | xG FC Thun 2.48 / FC Basel 1893 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: FC Thun attack 1.357 / def 0.929 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.006 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: FC Thun (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.48
FC Thun xG
Expected Goals
1.34
FC Basel 1893 xG
69%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 kick off?
FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Stockhorn Arena.
What was the final score in FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893?
FC Thun 3 - 1 FC Basel 1893.
Where is FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
The match is being played at Stockhorn Arena.
What competition is FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 part of?
FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893?
Our statistical model gives FC Thun a 61% chance of winning, FC Basel 1893 a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC Thun the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both FC Thun and FC Basel 1893 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and FC Basel 1893?
Record (2 meetings): FC Thun 1W | Draws 0 | FC Basel 1893 1W.
What form are FC Thun and FC Basel 1893 in?
FC Thun (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Thun's attack rating (1.36) and FC Basel 1893's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 2.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Basel 1893's attack versus FC Thun's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.2%), 3-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Thun Win
61%
1.64
21%
4.71
18%
5.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
1 – 1
7.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.48
FC Thun xG
Total xG
3.82
1.34
FC Basel 1893 xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
5.59
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.23
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
8%
11.91
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
2%
66.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are FC Thun and FC Basel 1893 expected to score?
The model projects 2.48 expected goals for FC Thun and 1.34 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 3.82.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Thun come into this having played 32 games, going 23W 2D 7L for 2.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, FC Basel 1893 sit at 1.66 PPG from 32 outings (15W 8D 9L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five.
FC Thun carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of FC Basel 1893 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Thun's home form reads 11W 2D 3L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.19 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Basel 1893 have taken 1.62 points per game from 16 outings (8W 2D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Thun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Thun are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; FC Basel 1893 are on 1.56 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Thun have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games; FC Basel 1893 in 62%.
Last 32 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Thun
Current Season
FC Basel 1893
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Thun and FC Basel 1893 in coming into this match?
FC Thun have gone 23W 2D 7L in their last 32 games (2.22 PPG), while FC Basel 1893 have gone 15W 8D 9L in their last 32 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Thun at home or FC Basel 1893 away?
FC Thun's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Thun at home: 2.19 PPG; FC Basel 1893 away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: FC Basel 1893 have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
FC Thun's record when hosting FC Basel 1893 specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
FC Thun
0
Draws
3
FC Basel 1893
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and FC Basel 1893?
From 5 meetings on record, FC Thun have won 2, FC Basel 1893 have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Thun and FC Basel 1893 last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when FC Basel 1893 4-2 FC Thun.
Who has won more matches between FC Thun and FC Basel 1893?
FC Basel 1893 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Thun at 75%, FC Basel 1893 at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for FC Thun and 69% for FC Basel 1893. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Thun home games / FC Basel 1893 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Thun play FC Basel 1893?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of FC Thun's games and 62% of FC Basel 1893's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of FC Thun's matches and 69% of FC Basel 1893's.
Do FC Thun and FC Basel 1893 tend to score early?
FC Thun have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, FC Basel 1893 in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Thun cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Basel 1893.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Thun beat FC Basel 1893 3-1 at Stockhorn Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Thun 2.48 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.34 xG, a combined 3.82. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Thun attack 1.36 / defence 0.93 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.01 / defence 1.07, drawn from 32/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Thun 61% | Draw 21% | FC Basel 1893 18%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Thun 78%, FC Basel 1893 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Thun's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.66. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.