FC Sion 3-1 FC ST. Gallen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Sion at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 15 as FC Sion welcome FC ST. Gallen to Stade de Tourbillon. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 November 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, FC Sion have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Sion's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 4L across 7 games at Stade de Tourbillon this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC ST. Gallen stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC ST. Gallen away from home this season: 2W 0D 5L from 7 away games — 0.86 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 2.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (FC Sion) versus 1.00 (FC ST. Gallen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
FC Sion in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
FC ST. Gallen in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Sion 71% and FC ST. Gallen 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sion 50% | FC ST. Gallen 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.29 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 0.682 / defence 1.124 | FC ST. Gallen attack 0.719 / defence 1.453. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.504. FC Sion's attack strength of 0.682 is below the league average — the 1.29 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC ST. Gallen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.453 — this is suppressing FC Sion's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 FC Sion games / 14 FC ST. Gallen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sion 38% | Draw 27% | FC ST. Gallen 35%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | FC ST. Gallen 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Sion as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Sion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Sion 57% | FC ST. Gallen 71% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 38% | Draw 27% | FC ST. Gallen 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG FC Sion 1.29 / FC ST. Gallen 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 0.682 / def 1.124 | FC ST. Gallen attack 0.719 / def 1.453 | league avg home 1.306 / away 1.504 • Poisson stance: FC Sion (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
1.21
FC ST. Gallen xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen kick off?
FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
FC Sion 3 - 1 FC ST. Gallen.
Where is FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen part of?
FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 38% chance of winning, FC ST. Gallen a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Sion the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen in?
FC Sion (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Sion's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against FC ST. Gallen's defensive record (1.45x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, FC ST. Gallen's attack versus FC Sion's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sion Win
38%
2.60
27%
3.71
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
FC Sion xG
Total xG
2.51
1.21
FC ST. Gallen xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
11%
8.75
9%
10.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.8 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for FC Sion and 1.21 for FC ST. Gallen, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Sion come into this having played 14 games, going 4W 3D 7L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for FC Sion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC ST. Gallen sit at 1.07 PPG from 14 outings (4W 3D 7L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for FC ST. Gallen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Sion on 1.07 PPG, FC ST. Gallen on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Sion's home form reads 2W 1D 4L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, FC ST. Gallen have taken 0.86 points per game from 7 outings (2W 0D 5L).
The Goals Picture
FC Sion are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; FC ST. Gallen are on 1.36 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Sion have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; FC ST. Gallen in 71%.
Last 14 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Blended
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 4W 3D 7L in their last 14 games (1.07 PPG), while FC ST. Gallen have gone 4W 3D 7L in their last 14 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sion at home or FC ST. Gallen away?
FC Sion's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sion at home: 1.00 PPG; FC ST. Gallen away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2023, when FC ST. Gallen won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Sion's record when hosting FC ST. Gallen specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Sion
4
Draws
4
FC ST. Gallen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Sion have won 2, FC ST. Gallen have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when FC ST. Gallen 0-3 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sion 57%, FC ST. Gallen 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (FC Sion) and 71% (FC ST. Gallen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Sion have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / FC ST. Gallen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sion play FC ST. Gallen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of FC Sion's games and 71% of FC ST. Gallen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of FC Sion's matches and 71% of FC ST. Gallen's.
Do FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen tend to score early?
FC Sion have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, FC ST. Gallen in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Sion cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC ST. Gallen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Sion beat FC ST. Gallen 3-1 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.29 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.21 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC Sion beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.68 / defence 1.12 against FC ST. Gallen attack 0.72 / defence 1.45, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 38% | Draw 27% | FC ST. Gallen 35%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 50%, FC ST. Gallen 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sion's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Sion 1.07 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Sion win broke the near-deadlock. FC Sion (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.