FC Basel 1893 6-1 FC Sion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Sion at 54%, yet in-form FC Basel 1893 provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Basel 1893 host FC Sion at St. Jakob-Park in Super League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 August 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Basel 1893 — All Games: 1W 0D 0L from 1 Super League outings this season, averaging 3.00 points per game. Last five: W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. FC Basel 1893 have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Sion stand at 0W 0D 1L from 1 Super League matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC Sion have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Basel 1893 carry the stronger recent momentum — 3.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 3.00 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 1.01 xG and FC Sion 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 0.972 / defence 1.150 | FC Sion attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.901 / away 1.878. Data: 1 FC Basel 1893 games / 1 FC Sion games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 17% | Draw 29% | FC Sion 54%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 5.88 | Draw 3.45 | FC Sion 1.85. FC Sion hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Sion are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Basel 1893 (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Sion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: St. Jakob-Park • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Aug 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 17% | Draw 29% | FC Sion 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG FC Basel 1893 1.01 / FC Sion 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: FC Basel 1893 attack 0.972 / def 1.150 | FC Sion attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.901 / away 1.878 • Poisson stance: FC Sion (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
FC Basel 1893 xG
Expected Goals
1.84
FC Sion xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion kick off?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 1 August 2021 at St. Jakob-Park.
What was the final score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
FC Basel 1893 6 - 1 FC Sion.
Where is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at St. Jakob-Park.
What competition is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion part of?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives FC Basel 1893 a 17% chance of winning, FC Sion a 54% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Sion the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion will score (BTTS).
Will FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion in?
FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W. FC Sion (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Basel 1893's attack rating (0.97) and FC Sion's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Sion's attack versus FC Basel 1893's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sion Win
17%
5.80
29%
3.43
54%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
FC Basel 1893 xG
Total xG
2.84
1.84
FC Sion xG
5.80
17%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
1.87
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
16%
6.27
37%
2.74
Win to Nil
3%
36.36
20%
5.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 1.84 for FC Sion, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Basel 1893 come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Sion sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Sion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Basel 1893 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of FC Sion — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Basel 1893 are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Basel 1893 have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; FC Sion in 100%.
Defensively: FC Basel 1893 have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Basel 1893
Early Season
FC Sion
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion in coming into this match?
FC Basel 1893 have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have FC Basel 1893 or FC Sion been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Basel 1893 have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, FC Sion in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC Sion go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jan 2025, when FC Basel 1893 won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Basel 1893's record when hosting FC Sion specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
FC Basel 1893
3
Draws
2
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Basel 1893 have won 5, FC Sion have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when FC Basel 1893 0-2 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion?
FC Basel 1893 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Basel 1893 home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Basel 1893 play FC Sion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of FC Basel 1893's recent matches and 100% of FC Sion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of FC Basel 1893's recent games and 100% of FC Sion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion tend to score early?
FC Basel 1893 have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, FC Sion in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Basel 1893 run riot with a 6-1 hammering of FC Sion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Basel 1893 beat FC Sion 6-1 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.01 xG and FC Sion 1.84 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 beat their projection by 5.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Sion landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against FC Sion attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 17% | Draw 29% | FC Sion 54%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a FC Basel 1893 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 0%, FC Sion 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Basel 1893 scored 6 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Sion shipped 6 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.