BSC Young Boys 5-1 FC Basel 1893 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BSC Young Boys at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as BSC Young Boys face FC Basel 1893.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893 meet at Stadion Wankdorf in Super League (matchday 27). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 March 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Current Form
BSC Young Boys's record over their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
BSC Young Boys at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FC Basel 1893 have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
FC Basel 1893's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for BSC Young Boys, 1.60 for FC Basel 1893 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
BSC Young Boys goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
FC Basel 1893 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BSC Young Boys 58% versus FC Basel 1893 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BSC Young Boys 56% | FC Basel 1893 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BSC Young Boys 1.67 xG and FC Basel 1893 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BSC Young Boys attack 1.239 / defence 0.724 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.068 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.183. BSC Young Boys have a tight defence (rating 0.724), which is pulling FC Basel 1893's projected output down. Data: built from BSC Young Boys's last 62 games and FC Basel 1893's last 62.
Result probabilities: BSC Young Boys 55% | Draw 24% | FC Basel 1893 21%. Fair-value odds: BSC Young Boys 1.81 | Draw 4.12 | FC Basel 1893 4.86. The model has a clear lean to BSC Young Boys (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates BSC Young Boys as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: BSC Young Boys 30% (last 10 home games) | FC Basel 1893 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 | Competition: Super League, matchday 27 | Venue: Stadion Wankdorf • Kick-off: Sunday 10 March 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BSC Young Boys 55% | Draw 24% | FC Basel 1893 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG BSC Young Boys 1.67 / FC Basel 1893 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: BSC Young Boys attack 1.239 / def 0.724 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.068 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: BSC Young Boys (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
BSC Young Boys xG
Expected Goals
0.92
FC Basel 1893 xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 FAQs
What time does BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 kick off?
BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Stadion Wankdorf.
What was the final score in BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893?
BSC Young Boys 5 - 1 FC Basel 1893.
Where is BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wankdorf.
What competition is BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 part of?
BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 is a Super League fixture (matchday 27) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893?
Our statistical model gives BSC Young Boys a 55% chance of winning, FC Basel 1893 a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making BSC Young Boys the favourite.
Will both teams score in BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893 will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from BSC Young Boys's attack rating (1.24) and FC Basel 1893's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Basel 1893's attack (1.07x) against BSC Young Boys's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from BSC Young Boys's last 62 games and FC Basel 1893's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BSC Young Boys Win
55%
1.81
24%
4.12
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
BSC Young Boys xG
Total xG
2.58
0.92
FC Basel 1893 xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
4%
25.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.5 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893 expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for BSC Young Boys and 0.92 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
BSC Young Boys come into this having played 62 games, going 36W 17D 9L for 2.02 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, FC Basel 1893 sit at 1.26 PPG from 62 outings (20W 18D 24L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five.
BSC Young Boys carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of FC Basel 1893 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
BSC Young Boys's home form reads 24W 6D 1L across their last 31 home games, a 2.52 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.02 PPG overall — BSC Young Boys are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Basel 1893 have taken 1.13 points per game from their last 31 away games (9W 8D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BSC Young Boys come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
BSC Young Boys are averaging 2.15 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; FC Basel 1893 are on 1.34 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: BSC Young Boys have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BSC Young Boys
Blended
FC Basel 1893
Blended
BSC Young Boys (Home) vs FC Basel 1893 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
BSC Young Boys
Blended
FC Basel 1893
Blended
❓ BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 Form FAQs
What form are BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893 in coming into this match?
BSC Young Boys have gone 36W 17D 9L in their last 62 games (2.02 PPG), while FC Basel 1893 have gone 20W 18D 24L in their last 62 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BSC Young Boys at home or FC Basel 1893 away?
BSC Young Boys's home record (2.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BSC Young Boys at home: 2.52 PPG; FC Basel 1893 away: 1.13 PPG.
Have BSC Young Boys or FC Basel 1893 been keeping clean sheets recently?
BSC Young Boys have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, FC Basel 1893 in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893, the earliest from March 2024. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: BSC Young Boys won BSC Young Boys 5-1 FC Basel 1893 on 10 Mar 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, BSC Young Boys have gone 4W 2D 0L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Basel 1893 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
BSC Young Boys
3
Draws
2
FC Basel 1893
Recent Meetings
❓ BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, BSC Young Boys have won 5, FC Basel 1893 have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: BSC Young Boys 3-3 FC Basel 1893.
Who has won more matches between BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893?
BSC Young Boys have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
BSC Young Boys are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BSC Young Boys 55%, FC Basel 1893 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for BSC Young Boys and 58% for FC Basel 1893. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: BSC Young Boys keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; FC Basel 1893 in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BSC Young Boys home games / FC Basel 1893 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of BSC Young Boys's games and 61% of FC Basel 1893's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of BSC Young Boys's matches and 58% of FC Basel 1893's.
Do BSC Young Boys and FC Basel 1893 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of BSC Young Boys's recent matches and 84% of FC Basel 1893's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant BSC Young Boys run riot with a 5-1 hammering of FC Basel 1893.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BSC Young Boys beat FC Basel 1893 5-1 at Stadion Wankdorf, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BSC Young Boys 1.67 xG and FC Basel 1893 0.92 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. BSC Young Boys beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BSC Young Boys attack 1.24 / defence 0.72 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.07 / defence 0.93, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BSC Young Boys 55% | Draw 24% | FC Basel 1893 21%, with BSC Young Boys to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BSC Young Boys 56%, FC Basel 1893 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BSC Young Boys's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, BSC Young Boys arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result. BSC Young Boys (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.77 average — above their attacking norm. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.