Vasteras SK FK 0-2 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vasteras SK FK at 64% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Vasteras SK FK welcome Ostersunds FK to Hitachi Energy Arena in Superettan (matchday 30). Kick-off is Saturday 11 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Vasteras SK FK have gone 6W 3D 1L — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Vasteras SK FK's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Vasteras SK FK are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Ostersunds FK — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Ostersunds FK have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Vasteras SK FK carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Vasteras SK FK have won 1, Ostersunds FK 0, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 4 Jun 2023, ended Vasteras SK FK 2–1 Ostersunds FK — a Vasteras SK FK win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Vasteras SK FK trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 29 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Ostersunds FK trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 54% versus Ostersunds FK 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 58% | Ostersunds FK 44%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Vasteras SK FK surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Ostersunds FK have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Ostersunds FK surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Vasteras SK FK recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.80 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 1.136 / defence 0.647 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.873 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.578 / away 1.224. Vasteras SK FK have a tight defence (rating 0.647), which is pulling Ostersunds FK's projected output down. Data: built from Vasteras SK FK's last 59 games and Ostersunds FK's last 59.
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 64% | Draw 22% | Ostersunds FK 14%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 1.56 | Draw 4.50 | Ostersunds FK 7.28. The model has a clear lean to Vasteras SK FK (64%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vasteras SK FK as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Vasteras SK FK 30% (last 10 home games) | Ostersunds FK 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, matchday 30 | Venue: Hitachi Energy Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 64% | Draw 22% | Ostersunds FK 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.80 / Ostersunds FK 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 1.136 / def 0.647 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.873 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.578 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Ostersunds FK xG
42%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK FAQs
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK?
Vasteras SK FK 0 - 2 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK is a Superettan fixture (matchday 30) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 64% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Ostersunds FK will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Vasteras SK FK's attack at 1.14x the league average against Ostersunds FK's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus Vasteras SK FK's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Vasteras SK FK's last 59 games and Ostersunds FK's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.4%), 1-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
64%
1.56
22%
4.50
14%
7.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
2.50
0.69
Ostersunds FK xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
7.28
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
32%
3.12
2%
44.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 10.3 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 0.69 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Vasteras SK FK have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 29W 16D 14L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Ostersunds FK's form line: 17W 22D 20L from 59 games, 1.24 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Vasteras SK FK are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ostersunds FK.
Venue Form
On home soil, Vasteras SK FK have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 29 home games (16W 10D 3L).
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 5W 11D 13L from their last 29 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasteras SK FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 1.25 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Current Season
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
Vasteras SK FK (Home) vs Ostersunds FK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vasteras SK FK
Current Season
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
❓ Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK Form FAQs
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 29W 16D 14L in their last 59 games (1.75 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 17W 22D 20L in their last 59 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Vasteras SK FK's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 2.00 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Vasteras SK FK or Ostersunds FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Ostersunds FK in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from April 2022. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 4 October 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Vasteras SK FK have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Oct 2025, when Vasteras SK FK won Ostersunds FK 1-6 Vasteras SK FK.
Vasteras SK FK's record when hosting Ostersunds FK specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Vasteras SK FK
2
Draws
1
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Ostersunds FK?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Vasteras SK FK have won 3, Ostersunds FK have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 October 2025: Ostersunds FK 1-6 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and Ostersunds FK?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 52%, Ostersunds FK 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Vasteras SK FK) and 38% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Ostersunds FK in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Vasteras SK FK and Ostersunds FK matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Vasteras SK FK's recent matches and 55% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Vasteras SK FK and Ostersunds FK matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Vasteras SK FK's recent games and 38% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasteras SK FK and Ostersunds FK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Vasteras SK FK's recent matches and 62% of Ostersunds FK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ostersunds FK cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Vasteras SK FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK beat Vasteras SK FK 0-2 at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.80 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.69 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Vasteras SK FK fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Ostersunds FK outscored their 0.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 1.14 / defence 0.65 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.87 / defence 1.01, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 64% | Draw 22% | Ostersunds FK 14%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Ostersunds FK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 58%, Ostersunds FK 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Vasteras SK FK arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Ostersunds FK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.