Vasteras SK FK 2-2 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jonkopings Sodra at 42%, yet in-form Vasteras SK FK provide a compelling counter-argument — this Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 8 as Vasteras SK FK welcome Jonkopings Sodra to Iver Arena. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 18 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vasteras SK FK stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Vasteras SK FK at Iver Arena this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Iver Arena this season.
Across all Superettan games this season, Jonkopings Sodra have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Vasteras SK FK carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Vasteras SK FK, 0 for Jonkopings Sodra and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Vasteras SK FK in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Jonkopings Sodra in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 57% versus Jonkopings Sodra 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 50% | Jonkopings Sodra 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.38 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.843 / defence 1.149 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.973 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.575 / away 1.399. Data: 37 Vasteras SK FK games / 37 Jonkopings Sodra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 34% | Draw 25% | Jonkopings Sodra 42%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Jonkopings Sodra 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jonkopings Sodra are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vasteras SK FK (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jonkopings Sodra offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vasteras SK FK 70% | Jonkopings Sodra 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Iver Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 18 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 34% | Draw 25% | Jonkopings Sodra 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.38 / Jonkopings Sodra 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.843 / def 1.149 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.973 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.575 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Jonkopings Sodra (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Jonkopings Sodra xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 18 May 2022 at Iver Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Vasteras SK FK 2 - 2 Jonkopings Sodra.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra being played?
The match is being played at Iver Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 34% chance of winning, Jonkopings Sodra a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Jonkopings Sodra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Jonkopings Sodra will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Jonkopings Sodra?
Record (2 meetings): Vasteras SK FK 1W | Draws 1 | Jonkopings Sodra 0W.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Jonkopings Sodra in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Vasteras SK FK's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Jonkopings Sodra's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Jonkopings Sodra's attack versus Vasteras SK FK's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jonkopings Sodra Win
34%
2.98
25%
4.02
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
2.95
1.56
Jonkopings Sodra xG
2.98
34%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
21%
4.78
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
7%
14.25
10%
9.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.3 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Jonkopings Sodra expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.56 for Jonkopings Sodra, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Vasteras SK FK have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 8W 12D 10L record — W-D-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Jonkopings Sodra's form line: 10W 8D 12L from 30 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vasteras SK FK on 1.20 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Vasteras SK FK have posted 1.27 PPG from 15 outings (4W 7D 4L).
On the road, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 4W 3D 8L from 15 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Jonkopings Sodra are on 1.13 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Current Season
Jonkopings Sodra
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Jonkopings Sodra in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 8W 12D 10L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while Jonkopings Sodra have gone 10W 8D 12L in their last 30 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or Jonkopings Sodra away?
Vasteras SK FK's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 1.27 PPG; Jonkopings Sodra away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Vasteras SK FK or Jonkopings Sodra been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Jonkopings Sodra in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Vasteras SK FK's record when hosting Jonkopings Sodra specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Vasteras SK FK
2
Draws
2
Jonkopings Sodra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Jonkopings Sodra?
From 6 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 2, Jonkopings Sodra have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Jonkopings Sodra last play each other?
They last met on 7 October 2023, when Vasteras SK FK 3-1 Jonkopings Sodra.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 67%, Jonkopings Sodra 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Vasteras SK FK) and 40% (Jonkopings Sodra).
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK have failed to score in 27% of games; Jonkopings Sodra in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Jonkopings Sodra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play Jonkopings Sodra?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Vasteras SK FK's games and 47% of Jonkopings Sodra's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs Jonkopings Sodra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Vasteras SK FK's recent games and 40% of Jonkopings Sodra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasteras SK FK and Jonkopings Sodra tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Jonkopings Sodra in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vasteras SK FK and Jonkopings Sodra share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Iver Arena, Regular Season - 8, as Vasteras SK FK and Jonkopings Sodra drew 2-2 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.38 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.56 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.84 / defence 1.15 against Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.97 / defence 1.04, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 34% | Draw 25% | Jonkopings Sodra 42%, with Jonkopings Sodra to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 50%, Jonkopings Sodra 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasteras SK FK 1.20 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.