Vasalund 3-4 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasalund at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasalund vs Gais fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gais make the trip to Skytteholms IP to face Vasalund in Superettan, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 August 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vasalund have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vasalund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Skytteholms IP, Vasalund have gone 4W 1D 3L this season (8 games, 1.62 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.62 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Vasalund are significantly better at Skytteholms IP than their overall form suggests.
Gais's overall Superettan record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gais away from home this season: 2W 1D 5L from 8 away games — 0.88 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.38 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Vasalund, 0.70 for Gais — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Vasalund lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with Gais winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Vasalund — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Gais — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasalund 47% versus Gais 24%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Vasalund 59% | Gais 18%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasalund 1.12 xG and Gais 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasalund attack 1.067 / defence 1.254 | Gais attack 0.566 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.086 / away 1.061. Data: 17 Vasalund games / 17 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasalund 44% | Draw 31% | Gais 25%. Fair-value odds: Vasalund 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Gais 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vasalund are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vasalund if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.87 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Vasalund 38% | Gais 0% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasalund vs Gais | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Skytteholms IP • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasalund 44% | Draw 31% | Gais 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 36% | xG Vasalund 1.12 / Gais 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Vasalund attack 1.067 / def 1.254 | Gais attack 0.566 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.086 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Vasalund (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Vasalund xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Gais xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasalund vs Gais kick off?
Vasalund vs Gais kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Skytteholms IP.
What was the final score in Vasalund vs Gais?
Vasalund 3 - 4 Gais.
Where is Vasalund vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Skytteholms IP.
What competition is Vasalund vs Gais part of?
Vasalund vs Gais is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasalund vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives Vasalund a 44% chance of winning, Gais a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Vasalund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasalund vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Vasalund and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will Vasalund vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasalund and Gais?
Record (1 meetings): Vasalund 0W | Draws 0 | Gais 1W.
What form are Vasalund and Gais in?
Vasalund (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Gais (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Vasalund's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Gais's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Gais's attack (0.57x) against Vasalund's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasalund Win
44%
2.27
31%
3.19
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Vasalund xG
Total xG
1.87
0.75
Gais xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
21%
4.81
8%
12.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 11.6 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 13.0 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasalund vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Vasalund and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Vasalund and 0.75 for Gais, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasalund vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vasalund's recent record stands at 5W 2D 10L from 17 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Vasalund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gais, meanwhile, have gone 5W 2D 10L across 17 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Vasalund against 1.00 for Gais. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Vasalund have managed 4W 1D 3L from 8 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Vasalund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Gais's away record stands at 2W 1D 5L across 8 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasalund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vasalund are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 0.76 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gais in 24%.
Last 17 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasalund
Blended
Gais
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasalund and Gais in coming into this match?
Vasalund have gone 5W 2D 10L in their last 17 games (1.00 PPG), while Gais have gone 5W 2D 10L in their last 17 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasalund at home or Gais away?
Vasalund's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasalund at home: 1.62 PPG; Gais away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 August 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Vasalund
0
Draws
2
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasalund and Gais?
From 2 meetings on record, Vasalund have won 0, Gais have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vasalund and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2021, when Vasalund 3-4 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Vasalund and Gais?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vasalund see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Gais tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 38% (Vasalund) and 0% (Gais) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Vasalund and 0% for Gais.
On the defensive side: Gais in 38%; Vasalund have failed to score in 38% of games; Gais in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasalund home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasalund play Gais?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Vasalund's recent matches and 0% of Gais's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasalund vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Vasalund's recent games and 0% of Gais's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasalund and Gais tend to score early?
Vasalund have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Gais in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gais defy the odds to beat Vasalund 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat Vasalund 3-4 at Skytteholms IP, Regular Season - 18, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasalund 1.12 xG and Gais 0.75 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Vasalund beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gais outscored their 0.75 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasalund attack 1.07 / defence 1.25 against Gais attack 0.57 / defence 0.97, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasalund 44% | Draw 31% | Gais 25%, with Vasalund to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Gais win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasalund 59%, Gais 18%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasalund's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Gais's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasalund 1.00 PPG, Gais 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gais win broke the near-deadlock. Vasalund (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gais (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.38 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.