Trelleborg 0-3 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Landskrona BoIS travel to Vångavallen to take on Trelleborg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 July 2023, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Trelleborg stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Trelleborg have posted 5W 0D 5L at Vångavallen — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Across all Superettan games this season, Landskrona BoIS have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Trelleborg have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Trelleborg have won 0, Landskrona BoIS 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Trelleborg in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Landskrona BoIS in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trelleborg 64% and Landskrona BoIS 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 64% | Landskrona BoIS 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.61 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.988 / defence 1.204 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.817 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.096. Data: 45 Trelleborg games / 45 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 49% | Draw 26% | Landskrona BoIS 25%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Landskrona BoIS 4.00. Trelleborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Landskrona BoIS lead the H2H ledger, but Trelleborg carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Trelleborg are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trelleborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Trelleborg 50% | Landskrona BoIS 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jul 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 49% | Draw 26% | Landskrona BoIS 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Trelleborg 1.61 / Landskrona BoIS 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.988 / def 1.204 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.817 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Landskrona BoIS xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 30 July 2023 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Trelleborg 0 - 3 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 49% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (5 meetings): Trelleborg 0W | Draws 3 | Landskrona BoIS 2W.
What form are Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Trelleborg's attack at 0.99x the league average against Landskrona BoIS's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus Trelleborg's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
49%
2.03
26%
3.87
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.69
1.08
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
17%
5.96
5%
20.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.8 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.08 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Trelleborg's recent record stands at 19W 8D 18L from 45 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Landskrona BoIS, meanwhile, have gone 16W 14D 15L across 45 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trelleborg on 1.44 PPG, Landskrona BoIS on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Trelleborg have managed 11W 3D 8L from 22 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Landskrona BoIS's away record stands at 4W 7D 11L across 22 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Landskrona BoIS's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trelleborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Trelleborg are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.24 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Landskrona BoIS in 62%.
Last 45 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 19W 8D 18L in their last 45 games (1.44 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 16W 14D 15L in their last 45 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.64 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 25 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Trelleborg have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2023, when Landskrona BoIS won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trelleborg's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Trelleborg
3
Draws
5
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS?
From 10 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 2, Landskrona BoIS have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2025, when Trelleborg 1-0 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Landskrona BoIS see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 59%, Landskrona BoIS 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Trelleborg) and 46% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Landskrona BoIS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Trelleborg's recent matches and 46% of Landskrona BoIS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Trelleborg's recent games and 46% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Landskrona BoIS run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Trelleborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Trelleborg 0-3 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 16, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.61 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.08 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Trelleborg fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Landskrona BoIS outscored their 1.08 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.99 / defence 1.20 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.82 / defence 1.13, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 49% | Draw 26% | Landskrona BoIS 25%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Landskrona BoIS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 64%, Landskrona BoIS 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.44 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock. Trelleborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.