Trelleborg 3-2 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall meet at Vångavallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Monday 27 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Trelleborg's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Trelleborg's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Vångavallen this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
GIF Sundsvall (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
GIF Sundsvall's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Trelleborg 1W, GIF Sundsvall 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Trelleborg — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
GIF Sundsvall — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trelleborg 63% and GIF Sundsvall 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 63% | GIF Sundsvall 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.11 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.872 / defence 1.059 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.628 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 0.997. Data: 39 Trelleborg games / 39 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 46% | Draw 32% | GIF Sundsvall 22%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | GIF Sundsvall 4.55. Trelleborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — GIF Sundsvall's lower xG of 0.66 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trelleborg at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trelleborg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.77 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Trelleborg 40% | GIF Sundsvall 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Monday 27 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 46% | Draw 32% | GIF Sundsvall 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 33% | xG Trelleborg 1.11 / GIF Sundsvall 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.872 / def 1.059 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.628 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.321 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
0.66
GIF Sundsvall xG
33%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 27 May 2024 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Trelleborg 3 - 2 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 46% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (4 meetings): Trelleborg 1W | Draws 1 | GIF Sundsvall 2W.
What form are Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Trelleborg's attack rating (0.87) and GIF Sundsvall's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (0.63x) against Trelleborg's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.2%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
46%
2.18
32%
3.09
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
1.77
0.66
GIF Sundsvall xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.06
67%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
52%
1.94
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
24%
4.23
7%
13.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.0 | 11.3 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.9 | 12.5 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.6%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Trelleborg and 0.66 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Trelleborg come into this having played 60 games, going 23W 15D 22L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-D.
On the other side, GIF Sundsvall sit at 0.82 PPG from 60 outings (13W 10D 37L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-L across their last five.
Trelleborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Trelleborg's home form reads 13W 6D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, GIF Sundsvall have taken 0.57 points per game from 30 outings (4W 5D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trelleborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Trelleborg are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.08 scored and 2.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Current Season
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 23W 15D 22L in their last 60 games (1.40 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 13W 10D 37L in their last 60 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.50 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trelleborg have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Trelleborg
1
Draws
4
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall?
From 8 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 3, GIF Sundsvall have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Trelleborg 2-1 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 57%, GIF Sundsvall 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Trelleborg and 57% for GIF Sundsvall. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Trelleborg's recent matches and 47% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Trelleborg's matches and 57% of GIF Sundsvall's.
Do Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trelleborg edge out GIF Sundsvall 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat GIF Sundsvall 3-2 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 10, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.11 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.66 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Trelleborg beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. GIF Sundsvall outscored their 0.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.87 / defence 1.06 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.63 / defence 0.96, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 46% | Draw 32% | GIF Sundsvall 22%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 63%, GIF Sundsvall 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Trelleborg arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Trelleborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.