Trelleborg 3-2 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Trelleborg face GIF Sundsvall.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall meet at Vångavallen in Superettan (matchday 10). This fixture gets under way on Monday 27 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
Trelleborg's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Trelleborg's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
GIF Sundsvall (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
GIF Sundsvall's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, GIF Sundsvall edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 13 Aug 2023, ended Trelleborg 1–1 GIF Sundsvall — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Trelleborg — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
GIF Sundsvall — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trelleborg 63% and GIF Sundsvall 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 63% | GIF Sundsvall 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.11 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.872 / defence 1.059 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.628 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 0.997. GIF Sundsvall's attack rating of 0.628 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.66. Data: built from Trelleborg's last 39 games and GIF Sundsvall's last 39.
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 46% | Draw 32% | GIF Sundsvall 22%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 2.18 | Draw 3.09 | GIF Sundsvall 4.61. Trelleborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS Yes probability 33% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — GIF Sundsvall's lower xG of 0.66 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trelleborg at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trelleborg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.77 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 74% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Trelleborg's last 10 home games and GIF Sundsvall's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches point the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Trelleborg 40% (last 10 home games) | GIF Sundsvall 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, matchday 10 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Monday 27 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 46% | Draw 32% | GIF Sundsvall 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% (Under 74%) | BTTS Yes 33% (No 67%) | xG Trelleborg 1.11 / GIF Sundsvall 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.872 / def 1.059 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.628 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.321 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
0.66
GIF Sundsvall xG
33%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall FAQs
What time does Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 27 May 2024 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Trelleborg 3 - 2 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall is a Superettan fixture (matchday 10) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 46% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (67%).
Will Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (74%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Trelleborg's attack rating (0.87) and GIF Sundsvall's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (0.63x) against Trelleborg's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from Trelleborg's last 39 games and GIF Sundsvall's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.2%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
46%
2.18
32%
3.09
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
1.77
0.66
GIF Sundsvall xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.06
67%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
52%
1.94
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
24%
4.23
7%
13.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.0 | 11.3 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.9 | 12.5 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.6%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Trelleborg and 0.66 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Trelleborg come into this having played 60 games, going 23W 15D 22L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-D.
On the other side, GIF Sundsvall sit at 0.82 PPG from 60 outings (13W 10D 37L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-L across their last five.
Trelleborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Trelleborg's home form reads 13W 6D 11L across their last 30 home games, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, GIF Sundsvall have taken 0.57 points per game from their last 30 away games (4W 5D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trelleborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Trelleborg are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.08 scored and 2.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Current Season
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
Trelleborg (Home) vs GIF Sundsvall (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Trelleborg
Current Season
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
❓ Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall Form FAQs
What form are Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 23W 15D 22L in their last 60 games (1.40 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 13W 10D 37L in their last 60 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.50 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to June 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 5 October 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trelleborg have gone 3W 0D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Trelleborg
1
Draws
4
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Trelleborg have won 3, GIF Sundsvall have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 October 2025: Trelleborg 2-1 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 57%, GIF Sundsvall 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Trelleborg and 57% for GIF Sundsvall. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Trelleborg's recent matches and 47% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Trelleborg's matches and 57% of GIF Sundsvall's.
Do Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Trelleborg's recent matches and 83% of GIF Sundsvall's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trelleborg edge out GIF Sundsvall 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat GIF Sundsvall 3-2 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 10, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.11 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.66 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Trelleborg beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. GIF Sundsvall outscored their 0.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.87 / defence 1.06 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.63 / defence 0.96, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 46% | Draw 32% | GIF Sundsvall 22%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 63%, GIF Sundsvall 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Trelleborg arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Trelleborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.