Skövde AIK 0-2 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Vasteras SK FK (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Skövde AIK face Vasteras SK FK.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Skövde AIK host Vasteras SK FK at Södermalms IP in Superettan, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 August 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Skövde AIK stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Skövde AIK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Södermalms IP, Skövde AIK have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Skövde AIK are significantly better at Södermalms IP than their overall form suggests.
Across all Superettan games this season, Vasteras SK FK have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasteras SK FK away from home this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Vasteras SK FK are 1.50 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Vasteras SK FK have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Skövde AIK's 0 victories.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Jun 2023, ended 0–4 with Vasteras SK FK winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Vasteras SK FK have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Skövde AIK trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Vasteras SK FK trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Skövde AIK 52% versus Vasteras SK FK 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Skövde AIK 50% | Vasteras SK FK 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Skövde AIK 1.07 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Skövde AIK attack 0.914 / defence 0.936 | Vasteras SK FK attack 1.315 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.094. Vasteras SK FK have an above-average attack strength of 1.315 — the away xG of 1.35 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 Skövde AIK games / 46 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Skövde AIK 29% | Draw 29% | Vasteras SK FK 42%. Fair-value odds: Skövde AIK 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Vasteras SK FK 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vasteras SK FK are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasteras SK FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Skövde AIK 60% | Vasteras SK FK 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Skövde AIK vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Södermalms IP • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Skövde AIK 29% | Draw 29% | Vasteras SK FK 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Skövde AIK 1.07 / Vasteras SK FK 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Skövde AIK attack 0.914 / def 0.936 | Vasteras SK FK attack 1.315 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Skövde AIK xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Vasteras SK FK xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Skövde AIK vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Skövde AIK vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 August 2023 at Södermalms IP.
What was the final score in Skövde AIK vs Vasteras SK FK?
Skövde AIK 0 - 2 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Skövde AIK vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Södermalms IP.
What competition is Skövde AIK vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Skövde AIK vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Skövde AIK vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Skövde AIK a 29% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Skövde AIK vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Skövde AIK and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Skövde AIK vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and Vasteras SK FK?
Record (3 meetings): Skövde AIK 0W | Draws 0 | Vasteras SK FK 3W.
What form are Skövde AIK and Vasteras SK FK in?
Skövde AIK (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Skövde AIK's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Vasteras SK FK's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus Skövde AIK's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
29%
3.47
29%
3.46
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Skövde AIK xG
Total xG
2.42
1.35
Vasteras SK FK xG
3.47
29%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
8%
13.32
15%
6.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 12.0 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Skövde AIK vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Skövde AIK and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Skövde AIK and 1.35 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Skövde AIK vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Skövde AIK come into this having played 46 games, going 13W 15D 18L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Skövde AIK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vasteras SK FK sit at 1.65 PPG from 46 outings (21W 13D 12L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasteras SK FK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Skövde AIK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Skövde AIK's home form reads 7W 10D 5L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Vasteras SK FK have taken 1.55 points per game from 22 outings (10W 4D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Skövde AIK are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.67 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Skövde AIK
Blended
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Skövde AIK and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Skövde AIK have gone 13W 15D 18L in their last 46 games (1.17 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 21W 13D 12L in their last 46 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Skövde AIK at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Vasteras SK FK's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Skövde AIK at home: 1.41 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Skövde AIK or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Skövde AIK have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Vasteras SK FK go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Jun 2023, when Vasteras SK FK won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Skövde AIK's record when hosting Vasteras SK FK specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Skövde AIK
0
Draws
4
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and Vasteras SK FK?
From 4 meetings on record, Skövde AIK have won 0, Vasteras SK FK have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Skövde AIK and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 6 August 2023, when Skövde AIK 0-2 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between Skövde AIK and Vasteras SK FK?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Skövde AIK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Skövde AIK 54%, Vasteras SK FK 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Skövde AIK) and 54% (Vasteras SK FK).
On the defensive side: Skövde AIK keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Skövde AIK home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Skövde AIK play Vasteras SK FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Skövde AIK's games and 59% of Vasteras SK FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Skövde AIK vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Skövde AIK's recent games and 54% of Vasteras SK FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Skövde AIK and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
Skövde AIK have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vasteras SK FK cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Skövde AIK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat Skövde AIK 0-2 at Södermalms IP, Regular Season - 17, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Skövde AIK 1.07 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.35 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Skövde AIK fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Skövde AIK attack 0.91 / defence 0.94 against Vasteras SK FK attack 1.31 / defence 0.85, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Skövde AIK 29% | Draw 29% | Vasteras SK FK 42%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Skövde AIK 50%, Vasteras SK FK 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Skövde AIK's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Vasteras SK FK arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Skövde AIK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.