Skövde AIK 3-1 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Skövde AIK at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Skövde AIK vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Skövde AIK host Trelleborg at Södermalms IP in Superettan, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Skövde AIK — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Skövde AIK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Skövde AIK have posted 2W 5D 3L at Södermalms IP — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Trelleborg stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trelleborg's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Skövde AIK at 1.30 PPG versus Trelleborg's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Skövde AIK register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Trelleborg in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Skövde AIK have won 0, Trelleborg 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Jul 2022, ended 1–2 with Trelleborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Skövde AIK in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Trelleborg in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Skövde AIK 56% and Trelleborg 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Skövde AIK 48% | Trelleborg 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Skövde AIK 1.48 xG and Trelleborg 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Skövde AIK attack 0.893 / defence 0.970 | Trelleborg attack 1.182 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.279. Data: 25 Skövde AIK games / 55 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Skövde AIK 37% | Draw 26% | Trelleborg 37%. Fair-value odds: Skövde AIK 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Trelleborg 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Skövde AIK 60% | Trelleborg 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Skövde AIK vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Södermalms IP • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Skövde AIK 37% | Draw 26% | Trelleborg 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Skövde AIK 1.48 / Trelleborg 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Skövde AIK attack 0.893 / def 0.970 | Trelleborg attack 1.182 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Skövde AIK xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Trelleborg xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Skövde AIK vs Trelleborg kick off?
Skövde AIK vs Trelleborg kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Södermalms IP.
What was the final score in Skövde AIK vs Trelleborg?
Skövde AIK 3 - 1 Trelleborg.
Where is Skövde AIK vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Södermalms IP.
What competition is Skövde AIK vs Trelleborg part of?
Skövde AIK vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Skövde AIK vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Skövde AIK a 37% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Skövde AIK vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Skövde AIK and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Skövde AIK vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and Trelleborg?
Record (1 meetings): Skövde AIK 0W | Draws 0 | Trelleborg 1W.
What form are Skövde AIK and Trelleborg in?
Skövde AIK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Skövde AIK's attack rating (0.89) and Trelleborg's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trelleborg's attack versus Skövde AIK's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Skövde AIK Win
37%
2.68
26%
3.87
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Skövde AIK xG
Total xG
2.95
1.47
Trelleborg xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
9%
11.61
8%
11.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.4 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Skövde AIK vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Skövde AIK and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Skövde AIK and 1.47 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Skövde AIK vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Skövde AIK come into this having played 27 games, going 11W 9D 7L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-D. The sample for Skövde AIK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Trelleborg sit at 1.48 PPG from 27 outings (11W 7D 9L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Skövde AIK on 1.56 PPG, Trelleborg on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Skövde AIK's home form reads 5W 5D 3L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Trelleborg have taken 1.46 points per game from 13 outings (5W 4D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Skövde AIK are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.59 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg in 74%.
Defensively: Skövde AIK have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Skövde AIK
Blended
Trelleborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Skövde AIK and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Skövde AIK have gone 11W 9D 7L in their last 27 games (1.56 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 11W 7D 9L in their last 27 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Skövde AIK at home or Trelleborg away?
Skövde AIK's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Skövde AIK at home: 1.54 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Skövde AIK or Trelleborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Skövde AIK have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Trelleborg in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 September 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Skövde AIK's record when hosting Trelleborg specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Skövde AIK
2
Draws
2
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and Trelleborg?
From 6 meetings on record, Skövde AIK have won 2, Trelleborg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Skövde AIK and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 22 September 2024, when Trelleborg 1-1 Skövde AIK.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Skövde AIK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Skövde AIK 46%, Trelleborg 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Skövde AIK) and 69% (Trelleborg).
On the defensive side: Skövde AIK keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Skövde AIK home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Skövde AIK play Trelleborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Skövde AIK's games and 77% of Trelleborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Skövde AIK vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Skövde AIK's recent games and 69% of Trelleborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Skövde AIK and Trelleborg tend to score early?
Skövde AIK have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Skövde AIK cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Trelleborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Skövde AIK beat Trelleborg 3-1 at Södermalms IP, Regular Season - 26, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Skövde AIK 1.48 xG and Trelleborg 1.47 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Skövde AIK beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Skövde AIK attack 0.89 / defence 0.97 against Trelleborg attack 1.18 / defence 1.12, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Skövde AIK 37% | Draw 26% | Trelleborg 37%, with Skövde AIK to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Skövde AIK 48%, Trelleborg 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Skövde AIK's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Trelleborg's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Skövde AIK 1.56 PPG, Trelleborg 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Skövde AIK win broke the near-deadlock. Skövde AIK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Trelleborg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.