Skövde AIK 0-0 Oddevold – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Skövde AIK at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Skövde AIK vs Oddevold fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Skövde AIK and Oddevold meet at Borås Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 30 April 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Skövde AIK's overall Superettan record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Skövde AIK have posted 8W 0D 2L at Borås Arena — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Borås Arena.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Skövde AIK 1.41 xG and Oddevold 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Skövde AIK attack 0.920 / defence 0.796 | Oddevold attack 1.026 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 0.905. Skövde AIK's defence rating of 0.796 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 34 Skövde AIK games / 4 Oddevold games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Skövde AIK 52% | Draw 30% | Oddevold 18%. Fair-value odds: Skövde AIK 1.92 | Draw 3.33 | Oddevold 5.56. Skövde AIK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Skövde AIK are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Skövde AIK if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Skövde AIK vs Oddevold | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Skövde AIK 52% | Draw 30% | Oddevold 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Skövde AIK 1.41 / Oddevold 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Skövde AIK attack 0.920 / def 0.796 | Oddevold attack 1.026 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.352 / away 0.905 • Poisson stance: Skövde AIK (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Skövde AIK xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Oddevold xG
41%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Skövde AIK vs Oddevold kick off?
Skövde AIK vs Oddevold kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 30 April 2024 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in Skövde AIK vs Oddevold?
Skövde AIK 0 - 0 Oddevold.
Where is Skövde AIK vs Oddevold being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is Skövde AIK vs Oddevold part of?
Skövde AIK vs Oddevold is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Skövde AIK vs Oddevold?
Our statistical model gives Skövde AIK a 52% chance of winning, Oddevold a 18% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Skövde AIK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Skövde AIK vs Oddevold?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Skövde AIK and Oddevold will score (BTTS).
Will Skövde AIK vs Oddevold have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and Oddevold?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Skövde AIK and Oddevold in?
Skövde AIK (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Skövde AIK home split: 2.40 PPG from 10 | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Skövde AIK's attack rating (0.92) and Oddevold's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Oddevold's attack (1.03x) against Skövde AIK's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 34/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Skövde AIK Win
52%
1.94
30%
3.30
18%
5.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Skövde AIK xG
Total xG
2.15
0.74
Oddevold xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
5.51
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
25%
4.06
4%
22.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 8.6 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 12.1 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 8.6 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Skövde AIK vs Oddevold?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Skövde AIK and Oddevold expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Skövde AIK and 0.74 for Oddevold, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Skövde AIK vs Oddevold?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Skövde AIK
Pre-Season
Oddevold
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 October 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Skövde AIK
2
Draws
0
Oddevold
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and Oddevold?
From 2 meetings on record, Skövde AIK have won 0, Oddevold have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Skövde AIK and Oddevold last play each other?
They last met on 28 October 2024, when Oddevold 2-2 Skövde AIK.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Skövde AIK home games / Oddevold away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Skövde AIK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 5, as Skövde AIK and Oddevold drew 0-0 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Skövde AIK 1.41 xG and Oddevold 0.74 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Skövde AIK fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Skövde AIK attack 0.92 / defence 0.80 against Oddevold attack 1.03 / defence 1.13, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Skövde AIK 52% | Draw 30% | Oddevold 18%, with Skövde AIK to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.