Sandviken 0-1 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandviken at 45%, yet in-form Degerfors IF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sandviken vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Degerfors IF travel to Arena Jernvallen to take on Sandviken. The game is scheduled for Monday 23 September 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sandviken — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sandviken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandviken's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Arena Jernvallen this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Jernvallen. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Sandviken are significantly better at Arena Jernvallen than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Degerfors IF stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Superettan matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Degerfors IF — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Sandviken have won 0, Degerfors IF 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Jun 2024, ended 1–4 with Degerfors IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Sandviken in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Degerfors IF in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandviken 48% versus Degerfors IF 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandviken 61% | Degerfors IF 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandviken 1.60 xG and Degerfors IF 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandviken attack 1.328 / defence 0.882 | Degerfors IF attack 1.151 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.209. Sandviken carry an above-average attack strength of 1.328 — their λ of 1.60 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 23 Sandviken games / 23 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandviken 45% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 28%. Fair-value odds: Sandviken 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Degerfors IF 3.57. Sandviken hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandviken at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Degerfors IF (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandviken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sandviken 40% | Degerfors IF 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandviken vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Arena Jernvallen • Kick-off: Monday 23 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandviken 45% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Sandviken 1.60 / Degerfors IF 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Sandviken attack 1.328 / def 0.882 | Degerfors IF attack 1.151 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Sandviken (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Sandviken xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Degerfors IF xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandviken vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Sandviken vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 23 September 2024 at Arena Jernvallen.
What was the final score in Sandviken vs Degerfors IF?
Sandviken 0 - 1 Degerfors IF.
Where is Sandviken vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Arena Jernvallen.
What competition is Sandviken vs Degerfors IF part of?
Sandviken vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sandviken vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Sandviken a 45% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sandviken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandviken vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sandviken and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Sandviken vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Degerfors IF?
Record (1 meetings): Sandviken 0W | Draws 0 | Degerfors IF 1W.
What form are Sandviken and Degerfors IF in?
Sandviken (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Degerfors IF (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sandviken's attacking strength (1.33x league average) is weighed against Degerfors IF's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Degerfors IF's attack versus Sandviken's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandviken Win
45%
2.21
26%
3.81
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Sandviken xG
Total xG
2.83
1.23
Degerfors IF xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
13%
7.51
6%
17.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.6 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandviken vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Sandviken and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Sandviken and 1.23 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandviken vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sandviken's recent record stands at 10W 6D 7L from 23 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Sandviken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Degerfors IF, meanwhile, have gone 12W 8D 3L across 23 games — 1.91 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sandviken on 1.57 PPG, Degerfors IF on 1.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sandviken have managed 8W 1D 2L from 11 games — 2.27 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Sandviken are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Degerfors IF's away record stands at 4W 5D 2L across 11 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sandviken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sandviken are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.83 scored and 0.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF in 70%.
Last 23 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandviken
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandviken and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Sandviken have gone 10W 6D 7L in their last 23 games (1.57 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 12W 8D 3L in their last 23 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandviken at home or Degerfors IF away?
Sandviken's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandviken at home: 2.27 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Sandviken or Degerfors IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandviken have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Degerfors IF in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sandviken
0
Draws
2
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Degerfors IF?
From 2 meetings on record, Sandviken have won 0, Degerfors IF have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sandviken and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 23 September 2024, when Sandviken 0-1 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Sandviken and Degerfors IF?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandviken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandviken 46%, Degerfors IF 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Sandviken) and 46% (Degerfors IF).
On the defensive side: Sandviken keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandviken home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandviken play Degerfors IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Sandviken's games and 73% of Degerfors IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandviken vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Sandviken's recent games and 46% of Degerfors IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sandviken and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Sandviken have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Degerfors IF defy the odds to beat Sandviken 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat Sandviken 0-1 at Arena Jernvallen, Regular Season - 24, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 1.60 xG and Degerfors IF 1.23 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sandviken fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 1.33 / defence 0.88 against Degerfors IF attack 1.15 / defence 0.89, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandviken 45% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 28%, with Sandviken to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Degerfors IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandviken 61%, Degerfors IF 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandviken's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandviken 1.57 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Degerfors IF win broke the near-deadlock. Sandviken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.