Ostersunds FK 2-1 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ostersunds FK host Varbergs BoIS FC at Jämtkraft Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 July 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ostersunds FK — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jämtkraft Arena, Ostersunds FK have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Ostersunds FK are significantly better at Jämtkraft Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Varbergs BoIS FC stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Varbergs BoIS FC's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ostersunds FK 1.40 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ostersunds FK register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Varbergs BoIS FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against Ostersunds FK's 0 victories.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 0–2 with Varbergs BoIS FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Varbergs BoIS FC have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Varbergs BoIS FC in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 62% versus Varbergs BoIS FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 47% | Varbergs BoIS FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.51 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 1.014 / defence 1.020 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.744 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.141. Data: 45 Ostersunds FK games / 15 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 52% | Draw 27% | Varbergs BoIS FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Varbergs BoIS FC 4.76. Ostersunds FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ostersunds FK at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Ostersunds FK 60% | Varbergs BoIS FC 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jul 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 52% | Draw 27% | Varbergs BoIS FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.51 / Varbergs BoIS FC 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 1.014 / def 1.020 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.744 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 July 2024 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Ostersunds FK 2 - 1 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 52% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Record (5 meetings): Ostersunds FK 0W | Draws 1 | Varbergs BoIS FC 4W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ostersunds FK's attack at 1.01x the league average against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Varbergs BoIS FC's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
52%
1.92
27%
3.74
21%
4.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.38
0.87
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.72
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
22%
4.56
5%
21.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.1 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 0.87 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ostersunds FK come into this having played 45 games, going 15W 16D 14L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Varbergs BoIS FC sit at 0.69 PPG from 45 outings (7W 10D 28L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Varbergs BoIS FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ostersunds FK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Varbergs BoIS FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Ostersunds FK's home form reads 10W 8D 4L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Varbergs BoIS FC have taken 0.59 points per game from 22 outings (3W 4D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ostersunds FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 0.98 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ostersunds FK have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 15W 16D 14L in their last 45 games (1.36 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 7W 10D 28L in their last 45 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.73 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Nov 2020, when Varbergs BoIS FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting Varbergs BoIS FC specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Ostersunds FK
2
Draws
5
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 9 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 2, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Varbergs BoIS FC 1-2 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 77%, Varbergs BoIS FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Ostersunds FK) and 54% (Varbergs BoIS FC).
On the defensive side: Varbergs BoIS FC in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Ostersunds FK's games and 50% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 54% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ostersunds FK edge out Varbergs BoIS FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK beat Varbergs BoIS FC 2-1 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.51 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 0.87 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.01 / defence 1.02 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.74 / defence 1.05, drawn from 45/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 52% | Draw 27% | Varbergs BoIS FC 21%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 47%, Varbergs BoIS FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ostersunds FK arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.69. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.