Ostersunds FK 2-1 Sandviken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 8 as Ostersunds FK welcome Sandviken to Jamtkraft Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 May 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ostersunds FK stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ostersunds FK have posted 5W 2D 3L at Jamtkraft Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sandviken — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Sandviken away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Ostersunds FK) versus 1.70 (Sandviken). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
Sandviken have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 4 encounters against Ostersunds FK's 0 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 0–5 with Sandviken winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sandviken have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Ostersunds FK in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Sandviken in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 52% versus Sandviken 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 48% | Sandviken 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.73 xG and Sandviken 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 1.084 / defence 1.120 | Sandviken attack 0.857 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.346. Data: 37 Ostersunds FK games / 37 Sandviken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 48% | Draw 24% | Sandviken 29%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Sandviken 3.45. Ostersunds FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ostersunds FK as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Ostersunds FK 60% | Sandviken 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Jamtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 48% | Draw 24% | Sandviken 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.73 / Sandviken 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 1.084 / def 1.120 | Sandviken attack 0.857 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Sandviken xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Jamtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken?
Ostersunds FK 2 - 1 Sandviken.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken being played?
The match is being played at Jamtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 48% chance of winning, Sandviken a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Sandviken will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Sandviken?
Record (4 meetings): Ostersunds FK 0W | Draws 1 | Sandviken 3W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Sandviken in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Sandviken (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ostersunds FK's attack at 1.08x the league average against Sandviken's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sandviken's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
48%
2.10
24%
4.24
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
3.02
1.29
Sandviken xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
13%
7.62
5%
19.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.9 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Sandviken expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.29 for Sandviken, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ostersunds FK come into this having played 60 games, going 18W 17D 25L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Sandviken sit at 1.40 PPG from 60 outings (24W 12D 24L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ostersunds FK on 1.18 PPG, Sandviken on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ostersunds FK's home form reads 14W 9D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Ostersunds FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sandviken have taken 1.07 points per game from 30 outings (8W 8D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ostersunds FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Sandviken are on 1.42 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
Sandviken
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Sandviken in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 18W 17D 25L in their last 60 games (1.18 PPG), while Sandviken have gone 24W 12D 24L in their last 60 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Sandviken away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.70 PPG; Sandviken away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ostersunds FK and Sandviken runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Nov 2025, when Sandviken won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting Sandviken specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Ostersunds FK
1
Draws
3
Sandviken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Sandviken?
From 5 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 1, Sandviken have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Sandviken last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Ostersunds FK 2-1 Sandviken.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Sandviken?
Sandviken have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Sandviken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 67%, Sandviken 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Ostersunds FK and 67% for Sandviken. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandviken in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Sandviken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Sandviken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Ostersunds FK's games and 53% of Sandviken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Ostersunds FK's matches and 67% of Sandviken's.
Do Ostersunds FK and Sandviken tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Sandviken in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ostersunds FK edge out Sandviken 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK beat Sandviken 2-1 at Jamtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.73 xG and Sandviken 1.29 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.08 / defence 1.12 against Sandviken attack 0.86 / defence 1.08, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 48% | Draw 24% | Sandviken 29%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 48%, Sandviken 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Sandviken's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.18 PPG, Sandviken 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ostersunds FK win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.