Ostersunds FK 0-2 Sandviken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 59% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ostersunds FK face Sandviken.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Ostersunds FK welcome Sandviken to Jämtkraft Arena in Superettan (matchday 11). Kick-off is Saturday 1 June 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ostersunds FK stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Ostersunds FK have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sandviken — last 2 games: 1W 0D 1L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Ostersunds FK) versus 1.50 (Sandviken). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.93 xG and Sandviken 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 1.191 / defence 1.184 | Sandviken attack 0.832 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 0.999. Sandviken's defence rating of 1.213 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ostersunds FK's projected output up. Data: built from Ostersunds FK's last 40 games and Sandviken's last 10.
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 59% | Draw 22% | Sandviken 19%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 1.68 | Draw 4.55 | Sandviken 5.36. The model has a clear lean to Ostersunds FK (59%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ostersunds FK as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Ostersunds FK's last 10 home games and Sandviken's last 2 games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken | Competition: Superettan, matchday 11 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 1 June 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 59% | Draw 22% | Sandviken 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Ostersunds FK 1.93 / Sandviken 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 1.191 / def 1.184 | Sandviken attack 0.832 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.337 / away 0.999 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Sandviken xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken FAQs
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 1 June 2024 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken?
Ostersunds FK 0 - 2 Sandviken.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken is a Superettan fixture (matchday 11) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 59% chance of winning, Sandviken a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Sandviken will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ostersunds FK's attack at 1.19x the league average against Sandviken's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sandviken's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ostersunds FK's last 40 games and Sandviken's last 10 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
59%
1.68
22%
4.55
19%
5.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.92
0.98
Sandviken xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
5.36
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
14%
6.90
Win to Nil
22%
4.50
3%
37.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 10.3 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Sandviken expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 0.98 for Sandviken, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ostersunds FK come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 0D 1L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W.
On the other side, Sandviken sit at 1.50 PPG from 2 outings (1W 0D 1L), a run that reads L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ostersunds FK on 1.50 PPG, Sandviken on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Sandviken are on 1.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Defensively: Ostersunds FK have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Early Season
Sandviken
Pre-Season
Ostersunds FK (Home) vs Sandviken (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ostersunds FK
Early Season
Sandviken
Pre-Season
❓ Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken Form FAQs
What form are Ostersunds FK and Sandviken in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Sandviken have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Ostersunds FK or Sandviken been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ostersunds FK have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Sandviken in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2024. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Nov 2025, when Sandviken won Sandviken 5-0 Ostersunds FK.
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting Sandviken specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ostersunds FK
2
Draws
3
Sandviken
Recent Meetings
❓ Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Sandviken?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Ostersunds FK have won 1, Sandviken have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Sandviken last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Sandviken 0-0 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Sandviken?
Sandviken have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Sandviken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ostersunds FK vs Sandviken Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ostersunds FK and Sandviken matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ostersunds FK's recent matches and 50% of Sandviken's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ostersunds FK and Sandviken matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 50% of Sandviken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ostersunds FK and Sandviken matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Ostersunds FK's recent matches and 100% of Sandviken's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sandviken cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ostersunds FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandviken beat Ostersunds FK 0-2 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.93 xG and Sandviken 0.98 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ostersunds FK fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Sandviken outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.19 / defence 1.18 against Sandviken attack 0.83 / defence 1.21, drawn from 40/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 59% | Draw 22% | Sandviken 19%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Sandviken win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 50%, Sandviken 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.50 PPG, Sandviken 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandviken win broke the near-deadlock. Ostersunds FK managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sandviken conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.