Ostersunds FK 2-3 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Brommapojkarna at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ostersunds FK vs IF Brommapojkarna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ostersunds FK host IF Brommapojkarna at Jämtkraft Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 August 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ostersunds FK — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jämtkraft Arena, Ostersunds FK have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IF Brommapojkarna stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Superettan matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IF Brommapojkarna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 2W 3D 4L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour IF Brommapojkarna — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Ostersunds FK, 1 for IF Brommapojkarna and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2022, ended 1–4 with IF Brommapojkarna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (19 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
IF Brommapojkarna in-play and half-time data (19 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ostersunds FK 58% and IF Brommapojkarna 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 37% | IF Brommapojkarna 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.29 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.848 / defence 1.162 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.857 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.336. Data: 19 Ostersunds FK games / 19 IF Brommapojkarna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 35% | Draw 28% | IF Brommapojkarna 37%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | IF Brommapojkarna 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Brommapojkarna at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Brommapojkarna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ostersunds FK 50% | IF Brommapojkarna 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 35% | Draw 28% | IF Brommapojkarna 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.29 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.848 / def 1.162 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.857 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: IF Brommapojkarna (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.33
IF Brommapojkarna xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Ostersunds FK 2 - 3 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
Ostersunds FK vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 35% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making IF Brommapojkarna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Ostersunds FK and IF Brommapojkarna will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and IF Brommapojkarna?
Record (1 meetings): Ostersunds FK 0W | Draws 0 | IF Brommapojkarna 1W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and IF Brommapojkarna in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ostersunds FK's attack rating (0.85) and IF Brommapojkarna's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IF Brommapojkarna's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Brommapojkarna Win
35%
2.87
28%
3.51
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.62
1.33
IF Brommapojkarna xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
9%
10.85
10%
9.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.7 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.5 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.33 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, Ostersunds FK have picked up 0.79 PPG on a 3W 6D 10L record — D-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Brommapojkarna's form line: 10W 5D 4L from 19 games, 1.84 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. The sample for IF Brommapojkarna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, IF Brommapojkarna are the form team by 1.05 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ostersunds FK.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ostersunds FK have posted 1.12 PPG from 8 outings (2W 3D 3L).
On the road, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 2W 3D 3L from 8 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.84 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of IF Brommapojkarna's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Ostersunds FK are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; IF Brommapojkarna are on 2.11 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Brommapojkarna in 74%.
Last 19 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and IF Brommapojkarna in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 3W 6D 10L in their last 19 games (0.79 PPG), while IF Brommapojkarna have gone 10W 5D 4L in their last 19 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or IF Brommapojkarna away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.12 PPG; IF Brommapojkarna away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ostersunds FK
0
Draws
2
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and IF Brommapojkarna?
From 2 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 0, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
They last met on 20 August 2022, when Ostersunds FK 2-3 IF Brommapojkarna.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and IF Brommapojkarna?
IF Brommapojkarna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ostersunds FK see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 62%, IF Brommapojkarna 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ostersunds FK) and 38% (IF Brommapojkarna).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play IF Brommapojkarna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Ostersunds FK's games and 62% of IF Brommapojkarna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs IF Brommapojkarna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 38% of IF Brommapojkarna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ostersunds FK and IF Brommapojkarna tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, IF Brommapojkarna in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IF Brommapojkarna edge out Ostersunds FK 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Brommapojkarna beat Ostersunds FK 2-3 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.29 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.33 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. IF Brommapojkarna outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.85 / defence 1.16 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.86 / defence 1.12, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 35% | Draw 28% | IF Brommapojkarna 37%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 37%, IF Brommapojkarna 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (19 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (19 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Brommapojkarna arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.