Osters IF 2-0 Norrby IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Osters IF at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Osters IF vs Norrby IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Osters IF host Norrby IF at Visma Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 May 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osters IF stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Superettan matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Osters IF's home record at Visma Arena: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Superettan appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Visma Arena.
Across all Superettan games this season, Norrby IF have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Norrby IF away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Osters IF have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Osters IF, 0 for Norrby IF and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Osters IF in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Norrby IF in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osters IF 43% versus Norrby IF 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osters IF 30% | Norrby IF 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.29 xG and Norrby IF 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 0.936 / defence 0.958 | Norrby IF attack 0.937 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.399. Data: 35 Osters IF games / 35 Norrby IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osters IF 38% | Draw 27% | Norrby IF 36%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Norrby IF 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Osters IF at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osters IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Osters IF 40% | Norrby IF 60%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs Norrby IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 38% | Draw 27% | Norrby IF 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Osters IF 1.29 / Norrby IF 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 0.936 / def 0.958 | Norrby IF attack 0.937 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Norrby IF xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs Norrby IF kick off?
Osters IF vs Norrby IF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs Norrby IF?
Osters IF 2 - 0 Norrby IF.
Where is Osters IF vs Norrby IF being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs Norrby IF part of?
Osters IF vs Norrby IF is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs Norrby IF?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 38% chance of winning, Norrby IF a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs Norrby IF?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Osters IF and Norrby IF will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs Norrby IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Norrby IF?
Record (2 meetings): Osters IF 0W | Draws 2 | Norrby IF 0W.
What form are Osters IF and Norrby IF in?
Osters IF (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Norrby IF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Osters IF's attack rating (0.94) and Norrby IF's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Norrby IF's attack versus Osters IF's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
38%
2.66
27%
3.75
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Osters IF xG
Total xG
2.55
1.25
Norrby IF xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
11%
9.34
10%
10.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.7 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs Norrby IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Osters IF and Norrby IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Osters IF and 1.25 for Norrby IF, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs Norrby IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Osters IF's recent record stands at 12W 10D 8L from 30 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Norrby IF, meanwhile, have gone 13W 9D 8L across 30 games — 1.60 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osters IF on 1.53 PPG, Norrby IF on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Osters IF have managed 8W 5D 2L from 15 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Norrby IF's away record stands at 7W 4D 4L across 15 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Osters IF are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Norrby IF are on 1.37 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Current Season
Norrby IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osters IF and Norrby IF in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 12W 10D 8L in their last 30 games (1.53 PPG), while Norrby IF have gone 13W 9D 8L in their last 30 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or Norrby IF away?
Osters IF's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 1.93 PPG; Norrby IF away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Osters IF or Norrby IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Norrby IF in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Osters IF's record when hosting Norrby IF specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Osters IF
2
Draws
1
Norrby IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Norrby IF?
From 5 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 2, Norrby IF have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and Norrby IF last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Osters IF 2-1 Norrby IF.
Who has won more matches between Osters IF and Norrby IF?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osters IF see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Norrby IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 47%, Norrby IF 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Osters IF) and 47% (Norrby IF).
On the defensive side: Osters IF keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Norrby IF in 33%; Osters IF have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / Norrby IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osters IF play Norrby IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Osters IF's recent matches and 53% of Norrby IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osters IF vs Norrby IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Osters IF's recent games and 47% of Norrby IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osters IF and Norrby IF tend to score early?
Osters IF have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Norrby IF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osters IF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Norrby IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat Norrby IF 2-0 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.29 xG and Norrby IF 1.25 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Norrby IF landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 0.94 / defence 0.96 against Norrby IF attack 0.94 / defence 1.00, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 38% | Draw 27% | Norrby IF 36%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 30%, Norrby IF 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Norrby IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osters IF 1.53 PPG, Norrby IF 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osters IF win broke the near-deadlock. Osters IF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm. Norrby IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.