Osters IF 2-1 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Osters IF at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Landskrona BoIS make the trip to Visma Arena to face Osters IF in Superettan, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Friday 26 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Osters IF's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Osters IF have posted 5W 3D 2L at Visma Arena — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Landskrona BoIS (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Landskrona BoIS's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Landskrona BoIS are 0.70 PPG clear of Osters IF in recent Superettan fixtures (2.10 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Osters IF lead 2W to 0W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Osters IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Landskrona BoIS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osters IF 53% versus Landskrona BoIS 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osters IF 42% | Landskrona BoIS 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.60 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 1.179 / defence 1.039 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.688 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.138. Data: 38 Osters IF games / 38 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osters IF 56% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 19%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Landskrona BoIS 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Osters IF (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Osters IF dominate the H2H record, yet Landskrona BoIS are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Osters IF are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Landskrona BoIS (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Osters IF 70% | Landskrona BoIS 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Friday 26 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 56% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 44% | xG Osters IF 1.60 / Landskrona BoIS 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 1.179 / def 1.039 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.688 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Landskrona BoIS xG
44%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 26 May 2023 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Osters IF 2 - 1 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 56% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Osters IF and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (4 meetings): Osters IF 2W | Draws 2 | Landskrona BoIS 0W.
What form are Osters IF and Landskrona BoIS in?
Osters IF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Osters IF's attack rating (1.18) and Landskrona BoIS's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Landskrona BoIS's attack (0.69x) against Osters IF's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
56%
1.78
25%
4.01
19%
5.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Osters IF xG
Total xG
2.42
0.81
Landskrona BoIS xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
5.28
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
25%
4.02
4%
26.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 11.6 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Osters IF and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Osters IF and 0.81 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Osters IF's recent record stands at 25W 19D 16L from 60 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Landskrona BoIS, meanwhile, have gone 24W 16D 20L across 60 games — 1.47 PPG, with D-W-D-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Osters IF against 1.47 for Landskrona BoIS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Osters IF have managed 15W 9D 6L from 30 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Landskrona BoIS's away record stands at 5W 9D 16L across 30 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Landskrona BoIS's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osters IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Osters IF are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.35 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS in 60%.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Current Season
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osters IF and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 25W 19D 16L in their last 60 games (1.57 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 24W 16D 20L in their last 60 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Osters IF's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 1.80 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Osters IF or Landskrona BoIS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Landskrona BoIS in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Osters IF won 1-4 on 2 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osters IF have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Landskrona BoIS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Osters IF
5
Draws
0
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Landskrona BoIS?
From 9 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 4, Landskrona BoIS have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Landskrona BoIS 2-2 Osters IF.
Who has won more matches between Osters IF and Landskrona BoIS?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 57%, Landskrona BoIS 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Osters IF) and 50% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: Osters IF keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Landskrona BoIS in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osters IF play Landskrona BoIS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Osters IF's games and 53% of Landskrona BoIS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Osters IF's recent games and 50% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osters IF and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Osters IF have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Osters IF edge out Landskrona BoIS 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat Landskrona BoIS 2-1 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.60 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.81 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 1.18 / defence 1.04 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.69 / defence 0.97, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 56% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 19%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 42%, Landskrona BoIS 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osters IF 1.57 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osters IF win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.