Osters IF 1-2 Gais – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Osters IF at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osters IF vs Gais fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gais make the trip to Visma Arena to face Osters IF in Superettan, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Osters IF (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Osters IF's home record at Visma Arena: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gais's overall Superettan record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Gais haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Gais have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Osters IF. A 0.60 PPG lead over Gais (1.40 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Osters IF lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Osters IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Osters IF half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Gais half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osters IF 66% versus Gais 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osters IF 53% | Gais 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 2.04 xG and Gais 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 1.278 / defence 0.945 | Gais attack 0.933 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.161. Osters IF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.278 — their λ of 2.04 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 36 Osters IF games / 6 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osters IF 61% | Draw 21% | Gais 18%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Gais 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Osters IF (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osters IF are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Osters IF 70% | Gais 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs Gais | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 61% | Draw 21% | Gais 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 56% | xG Osters IF 2.04 / Gais 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 1.278 / def 0.945 | Gais attack 0.933 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Gais xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs Gais kick off?
Osters IF vs Gais kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs Gais?
Osters IF 1 - 2 Gais.
Where is Osters IF vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs Gais part of?
Osters IF vs Gais is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 61% chance of winning, Gais a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Osters IF and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Gais?
Record (2 meetings): Osters IF 1W | Draws 0 | Gais 1W.
What form are Osters IF and Gais in?
Osters IF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Gais (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Osters IF's attack at 1.28x the league average against Gais's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 2.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gais's attack (0.93x) against Osters IF's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 36/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
61%
1.64
21%
4.79
18%
5.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Osters IF xG
Total xG
3.06
1.02
Gais xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
5.47
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
13%
7.70
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
2%
42.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Osters IF and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Osters IF and 1.02 for Gais, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs Gais?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Osters IF's recent record stands at 14W 10D 8L from 32 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Gais, meanwhile, have gone 10W 5D 17L across 32 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five. Gais haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Osters IF by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gais heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Osters IF have managed 8W 4D 4L from 16 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gais's away record stands at 5W 2D 9L across 16 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osters IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Osters IF are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 1.03 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Osters IF have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 32 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Current Season
Gais
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osters IF and Gais in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 14W 10D 8L in their last 32 games (1.62 PPG), while Gais have gone 10W 5D 17L in their last 32 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or Gais away?
Osters IF's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 1.75 PPG; Gais away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osters IF have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Gais — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Osters IF
2
Draws
3
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Gais?
From 6 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 1, Gais have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Gais 1-1 Osters IF.
Who has won more matches between Osters IF and Gais?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Gais see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 69%, Gais 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Osters IF) and 31% (Gais).
On the defensive side: Gais in 31%; Gais in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osters IF play Gais?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 69% of Osters IF's recent matches and 25% of Gais's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osters IF vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Osters IF's recent games and 31% of Gais's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osters IF and Gais tend to score early?
Osters IF have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Gais in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gais defy the odds to beat Osters IF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat Osters IF 1-2 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 2.04 xG and Gais 1.02 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Osters IF fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Gais outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 1.28 / defence 0.94 against Gais attack 0.93 / defence 1.11, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 61% | Draw 21% | Gais 18%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Gais win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 53%, Gais 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Gais's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Osters IF arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Gais winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gais (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.