Orgryte IS 3-3 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Orgryte IS at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orgryte IS vs Varbergs BoIS FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Orgryte IS host Varbergs BoIS FC at Gamla Ullevi in Superettan, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 September 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Orgryte IS — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Gamla Ullevi this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Varbergs BoIS FC have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Orgryte IS are in the better shape of the two on current Superettan data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Orgryte IS, 0 for Varbergs BoIS FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2024, ended 3–1 with Orgryte IS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Orgryte IS trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Varbergs BoIS FC trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 59% versus Varbergs BoIS FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 56% | Varbergs BoIS FC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 2.06 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.274 / defence 1.138 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.244 / defence 1.270. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.175. Orgryte IS carry an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — their λ of 2.06 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Varbergs BoIS FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.270 — this is suppressing Orgryte IS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Varbergs BoIS FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.244 — the away xG of 1.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Orgryte IS games / 24 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 47% | Draw 23% | Varbergs BoIS FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | Varbergs BoIS FC 3.23. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.73. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.73 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orgryte IS at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 70% | Varbergs BoIS FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 47% | Draw 23% | Varbergs BoIS FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 72% | xG Orgryte IS 2.06 / Varbergs BoIS FC 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.274 / def 1.138 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.244 / def 1.270 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Orgryte IS 3 - 3 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
Orgryte IS vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 47% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 31% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Orgryte IS and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Record (1 meetings): Orgryte IS 1W | Draws 0 | Varbergs BoIS FC 0W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Orgryte IS's attack rating (1.27) and Varbergs BoIS FC's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 2.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Varbergs BoIS FC's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
47%
2.15
23%
4.39
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
3.73
1.66
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
2.15
47%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.40
28%
BTTS No
3.52
Clean Sheet
19%
5.28
13%
7.89
Win to Nil
9%
11.34
4%
25.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.66 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 3.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Orgryte IS have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 19W 12D 23L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Varbergs BoIS FC's form line: 10W 12D 32L from 54 games, 0.78 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-L. The sample for Varbergs BoIS FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Orgryte IS are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Varbergs BoIS FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Orgryte IS have posted 1.26 PPG from 27 outings (9W 7D 11L).
On the road, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 5W 5D 17L from 27 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orgryte IS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.13 scored and 1.91 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 19W 12D 23L in their last 54 games (1.28 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 10W 12D 32L in their last 54 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.26 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Orgryte IS and Varbergs BoIS FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 2 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Orgryte IS go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 May 2025, when Orgryte IS won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orgryte IS's record when hosting Varbergs BoIS FC specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Orgryte IS
1
Draws
0
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 3, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2025, when Varbergs BoIS FC 1-2 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Orgryte IS have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 67%, Varbergs BoIS FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Orgryte IS and 63% for Varbergs BoIS FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Varbergs BoIS FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Orgryte IS's games and 56% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Orgryte IS's matches and 63% of Varbergs BoIS FC's.
Do Orgryte IS and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orgryte IS and Varbergs BoIS FC share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS and Varbergs BoIS FC finished level at 3-3 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 25, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 2.06 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.66 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Orgryte IS beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Varbergs BoIS FC outscored their 1.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.27 / defence 1.14 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.24 / defence 1.27, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 47% | Draw 23% | Varbergs BoIS FC 31%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 56%, Varbergs BoIS FC 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Orgryte IS arrived the stronger side — 1.28 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.