Orgryte IS 1-1 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees IK brage travel to Gamla Ullevi to take on Orgryte IS. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 August 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Orgryte IS have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS at Gamla Ullevi this season: 2W 3D 2L from 7 home games — 1.29 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IK brage stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IK brage away from home this season: 2W 3D 3L from 8 away games — 1.12 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.38 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Orgryte IS) versus 1.40 (IK brage). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Orgryte IS, 0 for IK brage and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Jun 2021, ended 3–1 with Orgryte IS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Orgryte IS in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
IK brage in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 53% versus IK brage 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 40% | IK brage 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.11 xG and IK brage 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.800 / defence 0.988 | IK brage attack 1.087 / defence 1.255. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.072. IK brage bring a strong defensive rating of 1.255 — this is suppressing Orgryte IS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Orgryte IS games / 15 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 35% | Draw 29% | IK brage 37%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | IK brage 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IK brage as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Orgryte IS 29% | IK brage 62%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 35% | Draw 29% | IK brage 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Orgryte IS 1.11 / IK brage 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.800 / def 0.988 | IK brage attack 1.087 / def 1.255 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: IK brage (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.15
IK brage xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs IK brage kick off?
Orgryte IS vs IK brage kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs IK brage?
Orgryte IS 1 - 1 IK brage.
Where is Orgryte IS vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs IK brage part of?
Orgryte IS vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 35% chance of winning, IK brage a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Orgryte IS and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and IK brage?
Record (1 meetings): Orgryte IS 1W | Draws 0 | IK brage 0W.
What form are Orgryte IS and IK brage in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. IK brage (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Orgryte IS's attack at 0.80x the league average against IK brage's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, IK brage's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
35%
2.89
29%
3.49
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.26
1.15
IK brage xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
11%
9.13
12%
8.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.15 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Orgryte IS's recent record stands at 4W 5D 6L from 15 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IK brage, meanwhile, have gone 4W 4D 7L across 15 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orgryte IS on 1.13 PPG, IK brage on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Orgryte IS have managed 2W 3D 2L from 7 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IK brage's away record stands at 2W 2D 3L across 7 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.13 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 15 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
IK brage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and IK brage in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 4W 5D 6L in their last 15 games (1.13 PPG), while IK brage have gone 4W 4D 7L in their last 15 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or IK brage away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.29 PPG; IK brage away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Orgryte IS and IK brage runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 23 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 May 2022, when IK brage won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orgryte IS's record when hosting IK brage specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Orgryte IS
3
Draws
4
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and IK brage?
From 10 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 3, IK brage have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2025, when Orgryte IS 2-2 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and IK brage?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Orgryte IS tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 29%, IK brage 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 14% (Orgryte IS) and 57% (IK brage).
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Orgryte IS have failed to score in 57% of games; IK brage in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play IK brage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Orgryte IS's recent matches and 57% of IK brage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orgryte IS vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 57% of IK brage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orgryte IS and IK brage tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 29% of their recent matches, IK brage in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orgryte IS and IK brage share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 16, as Orgryte IS and IK brage drew 1-1 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.11 xG and IK brage 1.15 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.80 / defence 0.99 against IK brage attack 1.09 / defence 1.25, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 35% | Draw 29% | IK brage 37%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 40%, IK brage 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
IK brage's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.13 PPG, IK brage 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.