Orgryte IS 0-0 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees GIF Sundsvall travel to Gamla Ullevi to take on Orgryte IS. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 April 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Orgryte IS have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Orgryte IS's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Gamla Ullevi this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
GIF Sundsvall — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
GIF Sundsvall's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Orgryte IS 2.10 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Orgryte IS have won 2, GIF Sundsvall 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Orgryte IS in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
GIF Sundsvall in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 61% versus GIF Sundsvall 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 56% | GIF Sundsvall 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.46 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.211 / defence 1.013 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.810 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.202 / away 1.257. Data: 32 Orgryte IS games / 32 GIF Sundsvall games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 47% | Draw 26% | GIF Sundsvall 27%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | GIF Sundsvall 3.70. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Orgryte IS 80% | GIF Sundsvall 30%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 47% | Draw 26% | GIF Sundsvall 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Orgryte IS 1.46 / GIF Sundsvall 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.211 / def 1.013 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.810 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.202 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.03
GIF Sundsvall xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 April 2025 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall?
Orgryte IS 0 - 0 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 47% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Orgryte IS and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (6 meetings): Orgryte IS 2W | Draws 2 | GIF Sundsvall 2W.
What form are Orgryte IS and GIF Sundsvall in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Orgryte IS's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against GIF Sundsvall's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, GIF Sundsvall's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
47%
2.13
26%
3.80
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.49
1.03
GIF Sundsvall xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
17%
5.97
6%
16.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.5 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.03 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 62 outings, Orgryte IS have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 22W 16D 24L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
GIF Sundsvall's form line: 20W 15D 27L from 62 games, 1.21 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orgryte IS on 1.32 PPG, GIF Sundsvall on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Orgryte IS have posted 1.35 PPG from 31 outings (11W 9D 11L).
On the road, GIF Sundsvall have gone 8W 6D 17L from 31 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.13 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Current Season
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 22W 16D 24L in their last 62 games (1.32 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 20W 15D 27L in their last 62 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.35 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Orgryte IS's record when hosting GIF Sundsvall specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Orgryte IS
4
Draws
2
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and GIF Sundsvall?
From 8 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 2, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when GIF Sundsvall 1-1 Orgryte IS.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 71%, GIF Sundsvall 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Orgryte IS) and 42% (GIF Sundsvall). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Orgryte IS's recent matches and 36% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orgryte IS vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Orgryte IS's matches and 42% of GIF Sundsvall's.
Do Orgryte IS and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Orgryte IS's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 3, as Orgryte IS and GIF Sundsvall drew 0-0 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.46 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.03 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Orgryte IS fell 1.5 short of their projected output. GIF Sundsvall landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.21 / defence 1.01 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.81 / defence 1.00, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 47% | Draw 26% | GIF Sundsvall 27%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 56%, GIF Sundsvall 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.32 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.