Orebro SK 0-0 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Orebro SK face Orgryte IS.

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Fixture Analysis

Orebro SK welcome Orgryte IS to Behrn Arena in Superettan (matchday 15). Kick-off is Saturday 20 July 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Orebro SK have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Orebro SK's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Orgryte IS stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Orgryte IS's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Orebro SK) versus 1.10 (Orgryte IS). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Orebro SK's games and 60% of Orgryte IS's (from Orebro SK's last 10 home games and Orgryte IS's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Orebro SK, 2 for Orgryte IS and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 1 Sep 2023, ended Orebro SK 3–0 Orgryte IS — a Orebro SK win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Orebro SK in-play tendencies (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Orgryte IS in-play tendencies (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 52% versus Orgryte IS 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 59% | Orgryte IS 57%). Note also that Orgryte IS surrender HT leads in 46% of cases while Orebro SK recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.85 xG and Orgryte IS 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 1.012 / defence 1.048 | Orgryte IS attack 1.134 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.169. Orgryte IS's defence rating of 1.268 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Orebro SK's projected output up. Data: built from Orebro SK's last 44 games and Orgryte IS's last 44.

Result probabilities: Orebro SK 48% | Draw 23% | Orgryte IS 29%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 2.07 | Draw 4.41 | Orgryte IS 3.45. Orebro SK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.85 / 1.39) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Orebro SK are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orebro SK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Orebro SK's last 10 home games and Orgryte IS's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Orebro SK 60% (last 10 home games) | Orgryte IS 60% (last 10 away games).

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