Orebro SK 3-0 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs Jonkopings Sodra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Orebro SK host Jonkopings Sodra at Behrn Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 14 August 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Orebro SK — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Orebro SK have posted 2W 7D 1L at Behrn Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Behrn Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jonkopings Sodra stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Orebro SK) versus 1.40 (Jonkopings Sodra). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Orebro SK, 0 for Jonkopings Sodra and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Orebro SK trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Jonkopings Sodra trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 45% versus Jonkopings Sodra 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 45% | Jonkopings Sodra 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.29 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.731 / defence 0.658 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.017 / defence 1.258. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.213. Orebro SK's attack strength of 0.731 is below the league average — the 1.29 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Jonkopings Sodra bring a strong defensive rating of 1.258 — this is suppressing Orebro SK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Orebro SK's defence rating of 0.658 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Orebro SK games / 47 Jonkopings Sodra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 47% | Draw 31% | Jonkopings Sodra 22%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Jonkopings Sodra 4.55. Orebro SK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orebro SK are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orebro SK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Orebro SK 30% | Jonkopings Sodra 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Jonkopings Sodra | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Monday 14 Aug 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 47% | Draw 31% | Jonkopings Sodra 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Orebro SK 1.29 / Jonkopings Sodra 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.731 / def 0.658 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.017 / def 1.258 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Jonkopings Sodra xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Jonkopings Sodra kick off?
Orebro SK vs Jonkopings Sodra kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 14 August 2023 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Orebro SK 3 - 0 Jonkopings Sodra.
Where is Orebro SK vs Jonkopings Sodra being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Jonkopings Sodra part of?
Orebro SK vs Jonkopings Sodra is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 47% chance of winning, Jonkopings Sodra a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Orebro SK and Jonkopings Sodra will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Jonkopings Sodra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Jonkopings Sodra?
Record (3 meetings): Orebro SK 1W | Draws 2 | Jonkopings Sodra 0W.
What form are Orebro SK and Jonkopings Sodra in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-D-D. Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Orebro SK's attack at 0.73x the league average against Jonkopings Sodra's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jonkopings Sodra's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
47%
2.15
31%
3.22
22%
4.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.10
0.81
Jonkopings Sodra xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
4.48
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
6%
16.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 9.9 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.8 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Jonkopings Sodra expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Orebro SK and 0.81 for Jonkopings Sodra, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Orebro SK have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 13W 16D 18L record — D-D-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jonkopings Sodra's form line: 15W 15D 17L from 47 games, 1.28 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Jonkopings Sodra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orebro SK on 1.17 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Orebro SK have posted 1.30 PPG from 23 outings (7W 9D 7L).
On the road, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 5W 11D 7L from 23 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Orebro SK are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Jonkopings Sodra are on 1.49 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jonkopings Sodra in 70%.
Last 47 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Jonkopings Sodra in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 13W 16D 18L in their last 47 games (1.17 PPG), while Jonkopings Sodra have gone 15W 15D 17L in their last 47 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Jonkopings Sodra away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.30 PPG; Jonkopings Sodra away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Orebro SK or Jonkopings Sodra been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orebro SK have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Jonkopings Sodra in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2023, when Orebro SK won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orebro SK's record when hosting Jonkopings Sodra specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Orebro SK
2
Draws
0
Jonkopings Sodra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Jonkopings Sodra?
From 4 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 2, Jonkopings Sodra have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Jonkopings Sodra last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2023, when Orebro SK 3-0 Jonkopings Sodra.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and Jonkopings Sodra?
Orebro SK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 35%, Jonkopings Sodra 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Orebro SK) and 56% (Jonkopings Sodra).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Orebro SK have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Jonkopings Sodra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Jonkopings Sodra?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 70% of Jonkopings Sodra's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orebro SK vs Jonkopings Sodra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Orebro SK's recent games and 56% of Jonkopings Sodra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Jonkopings Sodra tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Jonkopings Sodra in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Orebro SK run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Jonkopings Sodra.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK beat Jonkopings Sodra 3-0 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.29 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 0.81 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Orebro SK beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jonkopings Sodra landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.73 / defence 0.66 against Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.02 / defence 1.26, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 47% | Draw 31% | Jonkopings Sodra 22%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 45%, Jonkopings Sodra 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.17 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orebro SK win broke the near-deadlock. Orebro SK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.