Lund 0-2 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lund at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lund face Ostersunds FK.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Lund welcome Ostersunds FK to Klostergårdens IP in Superettan (Relegation Round). Kick-off is Thursday 21 November 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ostersunds FK stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ostersunds FK's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lund 1.45 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lund attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.782 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.194. Ostersunds FK's attack rating of 0.782 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.07. Data: built from Lund's last 0 games and Ostersunds FK's last 60.
Result probabilities: Lund 45% | Draw 29% | Ostersunds FK 27%. Fair-value odds: Lund 2.24 | Draw 3.51 | Ostersunds FK 3.72. Lund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lund as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lund vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Relegation Round | Venue: Klostergårdens IP • Kick-off: Thursday 21 November 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lund 45% | Draw 29% | Ostersunds FK 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Lund 1.45 / Ostersunds FK 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Lund attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.782 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Lund (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Lund xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Ostersunds FK xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lund vs Ostersunds FK FAQs
What time does Lund vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Lund vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Thursday 21 November 2024 at Klostergårdens IP.
What was the final score in Lund vs Ostersunds FK?
Lund 0 - 2 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Lund vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Klostergårdens IP.
What competition is Lund vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Lund vs Ostersunds FK is a Superettan fixture (Relegation Round) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Lund vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Lund a 45% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lund vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Lund and Ostersunds FK will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lund vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lund's attack at 0.85x the league average against Ostersunds FK's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus Lund's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lund's last 0 games and Ostersunds FK's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lund Win
45%
2.24
29%
3.51
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Lund xG
Total xG
2.53
1.07
Ostersunds FK xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
15%
6.56
6%
15.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.5 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lund vs Ostersunds FK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lund vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Lund and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Lund and 1.07 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Lund vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lund
Pre-Season
Ostersunds FK
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Lund (Home) vs Ostersunds FK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lund
Pre-Season
Ostersunds FK
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2024. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 24 November 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Lund
0
Draws
2
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Lund vs Ostersunds FK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lund and Ostersunds FK?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Lund have won 0, Ostersunds FK have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lund and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 November 2024: Ostersunds FK 3-2 Lund.
Who has won more matches between Lund and Ostersunds FK?
Ostersunds FK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lund home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Ostersunds FK cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK beat Lund 0-2 at Klostergårdens IP, Relegation Round, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lund 1.45 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.07 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lund fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Ostersunds FK outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lund attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.78 / defence 1.19, drawn from 0/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lund 45% | Draw 29% | Ostersunds FK 27%, with Lund to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Ostersunds FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.