Landskrona BoIS 2-0 United Nordic – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs United Nordic fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees United Nordic travel to Landskrona Idrottsplats to take on Landskrona BoIS. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 16 June 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Landskrona BoIS have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.47 xG and United Nordic 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.952 / defence 1.009 | United Nordic attack 0.959 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.441. Data: 41 Landskrona BoIS games / 11 United Nordic games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 39% | Draw 25% | United Nordic 36%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | United Nordic 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs United Nordic | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 Jun 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 39% | Draw 25% | United Nordic 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.47 / United Nordic 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.952 / def 1.009 | United Nordic attack 0.959 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.40
United Nordic xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs United Nordic kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs United Nordic kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 16 June 2026 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs United Nordic?
Landskrona BoIS 2 - 0 United Nordic.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs United Nordic being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs United Nordic part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs United Nordic is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs United Nordic?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 39% chance of winning, United Nordic a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs United Nordic?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and United Nordic will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs United Nordic have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and United Nordic?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and United Nordic in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Landskrona BoIS home split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Landskrona BoIS's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against United Nordic's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, United Nordic's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
39%
2.56
25%
4.01
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.86
1.40
United Nordic xG
2.56
39%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
10%
10.31
8%
12.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.7 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs United Nordic?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and United Nordic expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.40 for United Nordic, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs United Nordic?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Pre-Season
United Nordic
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Landskrona BoIS and United Nordic runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 16 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Landskrona BoIS
0
Draws
0
United Nordic
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and United Nordic?
From 1 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 1, United Nordic have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and United Nordic last play each other?
They last met on 16 June 2026, when Landskrona BoIS 2-0 United Nordic.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and United Nordic?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / United Nordic away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Landskrona BoIS cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over United Nordic.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat United Nordic 2-0 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 12, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.47 xG and United Nordic 1.40 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. United Nordic landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 0.95 / defence 1.01 against United Nordic attack 0.96 / defence 1.08, drawn from 41/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 39% | Draw 25% | United Nordic 36%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.