Landskrona BoIS 1-0 Norrby IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Norrby IF travel to Landskrona Idrottsplats to take on Landskrona BoIS. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 September 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Landskrona BoIS have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Landskrona BoIS have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Landskrona BoIS are significantly better at Landskrona Idrottsplats than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Norrby IF stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Norrby IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Norrby IF away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Landskrona BoIS 1.20 PPG, Norrby IF 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Landskrona BoIS, 0 for Norrby IF and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Landskrona BoIS trading profile (21 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Norrby IF trading profile (21 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 57% versus Norrby IF 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 43% | Norrby IF 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.44 xG and Norrby IF 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.109 / defence 0.941 | Norrby IF attack 0.906 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.071 / away 1.137. Norrby IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Landskrona BoIS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Landskrona BoIS games / 21 Norrby IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 48% | Draw 27% | Norrby IF 25%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Norrby IF 4.00. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Landskrona BoIS at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Landskrona BoIS 60% | Norrby IF 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 48% | Draw 27% | Norrby IF 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.44 / Norrby IF 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.109 / def 0.941 | Norrby IF attack 0.906 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.071 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Norrby IF xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF?
Landskrona BoIS 1 - 0 Norrby IF.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 48% chance of winning, Norrby IF a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF?
Record (1 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 0W | Draws 1 | Norrby IF 0W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Norrby IF (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Landskrona BoIS's attack at 1.11x the league average against Norrby IF's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Norrby IF's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
48%
2.09
27%
3.74
25%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.41
0.97
Norrby IF xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.92
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
18%
5.52
6%
16.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 0.97 for Norrby IF, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 21 outings, Landskrona BoIS have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 10W 4D 7L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Norrby IF's form line: 9W 7D 5L from 21 games, 1.62 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-D. The sample for Norrby IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Landskrona BoIS on 1.62 PPG, Norrby IF on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Landskrona BoIS have posted 2.36 PPG from 11 outings (8W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Landskrona BoIS are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Norrby IF have gone 4W 4D 3L from 11 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Norrby IF are on 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
Norrby IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 10W 4D 7L in their last 21 games (1.62 PPG), while Norrby IF have gone 9W 7D 5L in their last 21 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Norrby IF away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 2.36 PPG; Norrby IF away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Landskrona BoIS or Norrby IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Landskrona BoIS have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Norrby IF in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 12 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting Norrby IF specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Landskrona BoIS
3
Draws
0
Norrby IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF?
From 5 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, Norrby IF have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Landskrona BoIS 1-1 Norrby IF.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Norrby IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 54%, Norrby IF 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Landskrona BoIS) and 46% (Norrby IF).
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Norrby IF in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Norrby IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Norrby IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Landskrona BoIS's recent matches and 54% of Norrby IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 46% of Norrby IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Norrby IF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Landskrona BoIS edge out Norrby IF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Norrby IF 1-0 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 22, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.44 xG and Norrby IF 0.97 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Norrby IF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.11 / defence 0.94 against Norrby IF attack 0.91 / defence 1.21, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 48% | Draw 27% | Norrby IF 25%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 43%, Norrby IF 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Norrby IF's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.62 PPG, Norrby IF 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock. Norrby IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.