Landskrona BoIS 2-2 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Landskrona BoIS host IK brage at Landskrona Idrottsplats in Superettan, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 30 March 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Landskrona BoIS's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Landskrona Idrottsplats this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Superettan games this season, IK brage have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
IK brage's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Landskrona BoIS at 1.10 PPG versus IK brage's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Landskrona BoIS, 1 for IK brage and 3 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 3–0 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Landskrona BoIS in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
IK brage in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 55% versus IK brage 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 58% | IK brage 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.44 xG and IK brage 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.033 / defence 0.993 | IK brage attack 0.948 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.096. Data: 30 Landskrona BoIS games / 30 IK brage games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 44% | Draw 31% | IK brage 25%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | IK brage 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Landskrona BoIS are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Landskrona BoIS 50% | IK brage 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Mar 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 44% | Draw 31% | IK brage 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.44 / IK brage 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.033 / def 0.993 | IK brage attack 0.948 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.03
IK brage xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 30 March 2025 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage?
Landskrona BoIS 2 - 2 IK brage.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 44% chance of winning, IK brage a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and IK brage?
Record (6 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 2W | Draws 3 | IK brage 1W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and IK brage in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. IK brage (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Landskrona BoIS's attack rating (1.03) and IK brage's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IK brage's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
44%
2.27
31%
3.21
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.47
1.03
IK brage xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
6%
16.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.6 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.03 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Landskrona BoIS's recent record stands at 25W 13D 22L from 60 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five.
IK brage, meanwhile, have gone 23W 13D 24L across 60 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Landskrona BoIS on 1.47 PPG, IK brage on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Landskrona BoIS have managed 14W 8D 8L from 30 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IK brage's away record stands at 6W 8D 16L across 30 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.37 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of IK brage's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.17 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
IK brage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and IK brage in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 25W 13D 22L in their last 60 games (1.47 PPG), while IK brage have gone 23W 13D 24L in their last 60 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or IK brage away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.67 PPG; IK brage away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Landskrona BoIS or IK brage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Landskrona BoIS have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, IK brage in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2023, when Landskrona BoIS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting IK brage specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Landskrona BoIS
5
Draws
3
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and IK brage?
From 10 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, IK brage have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when IK brage 2-1 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and IK brage?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
IK brage see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 53%, IK brage 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Landskrona BoIS) and 33% (IK brage).
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; IK brage in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play IK brage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Landskrona BoIS's recent matches and 40% of IK brage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 33% of IK brage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and IK brage tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, IK brage in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Landskrona BoIS and IK brage share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS and IK brage finished level at 2-2 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 1, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.44 xG and IK brage 1.03 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. IK brage outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.03 / defence 0.99 against IK brage attack 0.95 / defence 0.95, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 44% | Draw 31% | IK brage 25%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 58%, IK brage 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
IK brage's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.47 PPG, IK brage 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.