Landskrona BoIS 2-0 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 13 as Landskrona BoIS welcome GIF Sundsvall to Landskrona Idrottsplats. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 July 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Landskrona BoIS — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 0L across 7 games at Landskrona Idrottsplats this term (2.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, GIF Sundsvall have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 3L across 6 road games this term (1.17 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.17 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Landskrona BoIS at 2.10 PPG versus GIF Sundsvall's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
GIF Sundsvall in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 17% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 75% versus GIF Sundsvall 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 50% | GIF Sundsvall 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.45 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.312 / defence 1.095 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.793 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 0.955 / away 1.144. Landskrona BoIS carry an above-average attack strength of 1.312 — their λ of 1.45 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 12 Landskrona BoIS games / 12 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 48% | Draw 27% | GIF Sundsvall 26%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | GIF Sundsvall 3.85. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Landskrona BoIS are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Landskrona BoIS 71% | GIF Sundsvall 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jul 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 48% | Draw 27% | GIF Sundsvall 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.45 / GIF Sundsvall 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.312 / def 1.095 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.793 / def 1.157 | league avg home 0.955 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
0.99
GIF Sundsvall xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 24 July 2021 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall?
Landskrona BoIS 2 - 0 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 48% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and GIF Sundsvall?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and GIF Sundsvall in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Landskrona BoIS's attack rating (1.31) and GIF Sundsvall's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, GIF Sundsvall's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
48%
2.10
27%
3.77
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.44
0.99
GIF Sundsvall xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
18%
5.67
6%
16.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.5 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 0.99 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 12 outings, Landskrona BoIS have picked up 2.08 PPG on a 7W 4D 1L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIF Sundsvall's form line: 6W 2D 4L from 12 games, 1.67 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Landskrona BoIS are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against GIF Sundsvall.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Landskrona BoIS have posted 2.33 PPG from 6 outings (4W 2D 0L).
On the road, GIF Sundsvall have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of GIF Sundsvall's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.42 scored and 1.00 conceded. Landskrona BoIS's scoring rate against GIF Sundsvall's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: GIF Sundsvall in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 7W 4D 1L in their last 12 games (2.08 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 6W 2D 4L in their last 12 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 2.33 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Landskrona BoIS or GIF Sundsvall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Landskrona BoIS have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, GIF Sundsvall in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Landskrona BoIS and GIF Sundsvall runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 18 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting GIF Sundsvall specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Landskrona BoIS
2
Draws
3
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and GIF Sundsvall?
From 9 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, GIF Sundsvall have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 2-1 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and GIF Sundsvall?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Landskrona BoIS see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
GIF Sundsvall tend to start slowly — only 17% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 83%, GIF Sundsvall 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Landskrona BoIS and 17% for GIF Sundsvall.
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall in 33%; GIF Sundsvall in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play GIF Sundsvall?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 33% of GIF Sundsvall's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 17% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 17% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Landskrona BoIS cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat GIF Sundsvall 2-0 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 13, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.45 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.99 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.31 / defence 1.09 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.79 / defence 1.16, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 48% | Draw 27% | GIF Sundsvall 26%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 50%, GIF Sundsvall 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Landskrona BoIS arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.67. Form held, and they took the win. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.