Landskrona BoIS 0-0 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 18 as Landskrona BoIS welcome GIF Sundsvall to Landskrona Idrottsplats. Kick-off is set for Monday 12 August 2024 at 18:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Landskrona BoIS — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Landskrona BoIS's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Landskrona Idrottsplats this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all Superettan games this season, GIF Sundsvall have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.

GIF Sundsvall's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

On current form, Landskrona BoIS have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, GIF Sundsvall 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2024, ended 3–1 with Landskrona BoIS winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

GIF Sundsvall in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 60% versus GIF Sundsvall 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 60% | GIF Sundsvall 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 2.03 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.143 / defence 1.118 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.670 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.210. GIF Sundsvall bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing Landskrona BoIS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Landskrona BoIS games / 47 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 63% | Draw 21% | GIF Sundsvall 16%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | GIF Sundsvall 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Landskrona BoIS (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Landskrona BoIS are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Landskrona BoIS 40% | GIF Sundsvall 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights