Landskrona BoIS 2-1 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gais at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs Gais fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Landskrona BoIS and Gais meet at Landskrona Idrottsplats in Superettan, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 September 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Landskrona BoIS's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS's home record at Landskrona Idrottsplats: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Gais (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gais's away record: 4W 4D 1L from 9 road trips in Superettan this season (1.78 PPG). Away from home they average 1.44 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 9 games (56%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Gais arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Landskrona BoIS 2W, Gais 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2023, ended 0–2 with Gais winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Landskrona BoIS half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Gais half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 55% versus Gais 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 55% | Gais 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 0.93 xG and Gais 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.940 / defence 0.970 | Gais attack 1.087 / defence 0.651. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.202. Gais's defence strength of 0.651 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 50 Landskrona BoIS games / 20 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 26% | Draw 31% | Gais 43%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 3.85 | Draw 3.23 | Gais 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gais at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gais if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Landskrona BoIS 60% | Gais 44%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Gais | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Sep 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 26% | Draw 31% | Gais 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Landskrona BoIS 0.93 / Gais 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.940 / def 0.970 | Gais attack 1.087 / def 0.651 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Gais (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Gais xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Gais kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Gais kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 2 September 2023 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Gais?
Landskrona BoIS 2 - 1 Gais.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Gais part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Gais is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 26% chance of winning, Gais a 43% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Gais?
Record (3 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 2W | Draws 0 | Gais 1W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Gais in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Gais (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Landskrona BoIS's attack rating (0.94) and Gais's defence rating (0.65), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gais's attack (1.09x) against Landskrona BoIS's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 50/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
26%
3.86
31%
3.21
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.19
1.27
Gais xG
3.86
26%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
7%
13.72
17%
5.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 14.2 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.27 for Gais, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Landskrona BoIS come into this having played 20 games, going 8W 3D 9L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gais sit at 1.80 PPG from 20 outings (10W 6D 4L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gais carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Landskrona BoIS — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Landskrona BoIS's home form reads 5W 2D 2L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Landskrona BoIS are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Gais have taken 1.78 points per game from 9 outings (4W 4D 1L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 1.70 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Gais in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
Gais
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Gais in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 8W 3D 9L in their last 20 games (1.35 PPG), while Gais have gone 10W 6D 4L in their last 20 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Gais away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.89 PPG; Gais away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Landskrona BoIS or Gais been keeping clean sheets recently?
Landskrona BoIS have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Gais in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Landskrona BoIS have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Gais — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Landskrona BoIS
0
Draws
1
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Gais?
From 4 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 3, Gais have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2023, when Landskrona BoIS 2-1 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Gais?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 56%, Gais 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Landskrona BoIS) and 56% (Gais).
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Gais in 56%; Gais in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Gais?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Landskrona BoIS's recent matches and 44% of Gais's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 56% of Gais's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Gais tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Gais in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Landskrona BoIS defy the odds to beat Gais 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Gais 2-1 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 21, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 0.93 xG and Gais 1.27 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 0.94 / defence 0.97 against Gais attack 1.09 / defence 0.65, drawn from 50/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 26% | Draw 31% | Gais 43%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Landskrona BoIS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 55%, Gais 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Gais's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Gais arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.35. Form was overturned, with Landskrona BoIS winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gais (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.