Jonkopings Sodra 0-1 Skövde AIK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jonkopings Sodra at 46%, yet in-form Skövde AIK provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jonkopings Sodra vs Skövde AIK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadsparksvallen plays host to Jonkopings Sodra versus Skövde AIK in Superettan, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Tuesday 24 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jonkopings Sodra have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Jonkopings Sodra's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stadsparksvallen this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Skövde AIK's overall Superettan record this term: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.00. 2 clean sheets from 2 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Skövde AIK have played only a handful of Superettan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Skövde AIK are 1.20 PPG clear of Jonkopings Sodra in recent Superettan fixtures (2.00 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jonkopings Sodra 2.43 xG and Skövde AIK 2.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.337 / defence 1.473 | Skövde AIK attack 1.008 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.408. Jonkopings Sodra carry an above-average attack strength of 1.337 — their λ of 2.43 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Skövde AIK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing Jonkopings Sodra's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Jonkopings Sodra games / 8 Skövde AIK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 46% | Draw 20% | Skövde AIK 34%. Fair-value odds: Jonkopings Sodra 2.17 | Draw 5.00 | Skövde AIK 2.94. Jonkopings Sodra hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 83% | BTTS probability 80% | Total xG 4.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 83% — a total xG of 4.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 80% reflects that both xG figures (2.43 / 2.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.4 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 83% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
Poisson rates Jonkopings Sodra as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Skövde AIK (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.52 combined xG gives a 83% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 1.6 goals per game points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jonkopings Sodra vs Skövde AIK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadsparksvallen • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 46% | Draw 20% | Skövde AIK 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 83% | BTTS 80% | xG Jonkopings Sodra 2.43 / Skövde AIK 2.09 • Poisson strength factors: Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.337 / def 1.473 | Skövde AIK attack 1.008 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: Jonkopings Sodra (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.43
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Expected Goals
2.09
Skövde AIK xG
80%
BTTS
95%
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jonkopings Sodra vs Skövde AIK kick off?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Skövde AIK kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 24 May 2022 at Stadsparksvallen.
What was the final score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Skövde AIK?
Jonkopings Sodra 0 - 1 Skövde AIK.
Where is Jonkopings Sodra vs Skövde AIK being played?
The match is being played at Stadsparksvallen.
What competition is Jonkopings Sodra vs Skövde AIK part of?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Skövde AIK is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Jonkopings Sodra vs Skövde AIK?
Our statistical model gives Jonkopings Sodra a 46% chance of winning, Skövde AIK a 34% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Jonkopings Sodra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Skövde AIK?
Our model estimates a 80% probability that both Jonkopings Sodra and Skövde AIK will score (BTTS).
Will Jonkopings Sodra vs Skövde AIK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 83%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Skövde AIK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Skövde AIK in?
Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Skövde AIK (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.00 | L5 W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Jonkopings Sodra's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against Skövde AIK's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.43. Flip it around — Skövde AIK's attack (1.01x) against Jonkopings Sodra's defence (1.47x) — and the away total comes out at 2.09.
These ratings are built from 38/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-2, at 7.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (6.7%), 1-1 (6.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jonkopings Sodra Win
46%
2.17
20%
4.92
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
6.7%
Home win
1 – 2
5.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.43
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Total xG
4.52
2.09
Skövde AIK xG
2.17
46%
Home win
4.92
20%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
83%
Over 2.5
1.20
17%
Under 2.5
5.88
66%
Over 3.5
1.52
34%
Under 3.5
2.94
47%
Over 4.5
2.13
53%
Under 4.5
1.89
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
80%
BTTS Yes
1.24
20%
BTTS No
5.13
Clean Sheet
12%
8.08
9%
11.35
Win to Nil
6%
17.58
3%
33.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 2.6 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jonkopings Sodra vs Skövde AIK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.0%.
How many goals are Jonkopings Sodra and Skövde AIK expected to score?
The model projects 2.43 expected goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 2.09 for Skövde AIK, a combined total of 4.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Jonkopings Sodra vs Skövde AIK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jonkopings Sodra come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 0D 1L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W. It's still early in the season for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Skövde AIK sit at 2.00 PPG from 2 outings (1W 1D 0L), a run that reads W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Skövde AIK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Skövde AIK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Jonkopings Sodra — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jonkopings Sodra are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Skövde AIK are on 1.50 scored and 0.00 conceded. Jonkopings Sodra's scoring rate against Skövde AIK's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Jonkopings Sodra have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Skövde AIK in 0%.
Defensively: Skövde AIK in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jonkopings Sodra
Early Season
Skövde AIK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Skövde AIK in coming into this match?
Jonkopings Sodra have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Skövde AIK have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Jonkopings Sodra or Skövde AIK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jonkopings Sodra have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Skövde AIK in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Skövde AIK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Jonkopings Sodra
3
Draws
1
Skövde AIK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Skövde AIK?
From 4 meetings on record, Jonkopings Sodra have won 0, Skövde AIK have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jonkopings Sodra and Skövde AIK last play each other?
They last met on 23 October 2023, when Jonkopings Sodra 2-2 Skövde AIK.
Who has won more matches between Jonkopings Sodra and Skövde AIK?
Skövde AIK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jonkopings Sodra home games / Skövde AIK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jonkopings Sodra play Skövde AIK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Jonkopings Sodra's recent matches and 0% of Skövde AIK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jonkopings Sodra vs Skövde AIK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Jonkopings Sodra's matches and 50% of Skövde AIK's.
Do Jonkopings Sodra and Skövde AIK tend to score early?
Jonkopings Sodra have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Skövde AIK in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Skövde AIK defy the odds to beat Jonkopings Sodra 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Skövde AIK beat Jonkopings Sodra 0-1 at Stadsparksvallen, Regular Season - 9, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jonkopings Sodra 2.43 xG and Skövde AIK 2.09 xG, a combined 4.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Jonkopings Sodra fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Skövde AIK landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.34 / defence 1.47 against Skövde AIK attack 1.01 / defence 1.22, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jonkopings Sodra 46% | Draw 20% | Skövde AIK 34%, with Jonkopings Sodra to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Skövde AIK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 83%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 95% and missed. Over 3.5 was 66% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 80% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jonkopings Sodra 100%, Skövde AIK 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Skövde AIK arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Jonkopings Sodra managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.