Jonkopings Sodra 0-1 Norrby IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jonkopings Sodra at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jonkopings Sodra vs Norrby IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 24 as Jonkopings Sodra welcome Norrby IF to Stadsparksvallen. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jonkopings Sodra have posted 6W 3D 1L at Stadsparksvallen — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Jonkopings Sodra are significantly better at Stadsparksvallen than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Norrby IF stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Norrby IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Norrby IF's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Jonkopings Sodra) versus 0.90 (Norrby IF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Jonkopings Sodra, 1 for Norrby IF and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2021, ended 0–2 with Norrby IF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Jonkopings Sodra trading profile (23 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Norrby IF trading profile (23 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jonkopings Sodra 48% versus Norrby IF 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jonkopings Sodra 48% | Norrby IF 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jonkopings Sodra 1.27 xG and Norrby IF 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.997 / defence 1.057 | Norrby IF attack 0.847 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.093 / away 1.117. Data: 22 Jonkopings Sodra games / 23 Norrby IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 43% | Draw 28% | Norrby IF 29%. Fair-value odds: Jonkopings Sodra 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Norrby IF 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jonkopings Sodra at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jonkopings Sodra offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Jonkopings Sodra 60% | Norrby IF 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jonkopings Sodra vs Norrby IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadsparksvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 43% | Draw 28% | Norrby IF 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Jonkopings Sodra 1.27 / Norrby IF 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.997 / def 1.057 | Norrby IF attack 0.847 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.093 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Jonkopings Sodra (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Norrby IF xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jonkopings Sodra vs Norrby IF kick off?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Norrby IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Stadsparksvallen.
What was the final score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Norrby IF?
Jonkopings Sodra 0 - 1 Norrby IF.
Where is Jonkopings Sodra vs Norrby IF being played?
The match is being played at Stadsparksvallen.
What competition is Jonkopings Sodra vs Norrby IF part of?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Norrby IF is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Jonkopings Sodra vs Norrby IF?
Our statistical model gives Jonkopings Sodra a 43% chance of winning, Norrby IF a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Jonkopings Sodra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Norrby IF?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Jonkopings Sodra and Norrby IF will score (BTTS).
Will Jonkopings Sodra vs Norrby IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Norrby IF?
Record (1 meetings): Jonkopings Sodra 0W | Draws 0 | Norrby IF 1W.
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Norrby IF in?
Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Norrby IF (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jonkopings Sodra's attack at 1.00x the league average against Norrby IF's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Norrby IF's attack versus Jonkopings Sodra's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jonkopings Sodra Win
43%
2.35
28%
3.54
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Total xG
2.27
1.00
Norrby IF xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
8%
12.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jonkopings Sodra vs Norrby IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Jonkopings Sodra and Norrby IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 1.00 for Norrby IF, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Jonkopings Sodra vs Norrby IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jonkopings Sodra's recent record stands at 9W 5D 9L from 23 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Jonkopings Sodra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Norrby IF, meanwhile, have gone 9W 8D 6L across 23 games — 1.52 PPG, with D-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Norrby IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jonkopings Sodra on 1.39 PPG, Norrby IF on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jonkopings Sodra have managed 6W 3D 1L from 10 games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Jonkopings Sodra are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Norrby IF's away record stands at 4W 4D 2L across 10 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jonkopings Sodra come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jonkopings Sodra are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Norrby IF are on 1.30 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
Norrby IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Norrby IF in coming into this match?
Jonkopings Sodra have gone 9W 5D 9L in their last 23 games (1.39 PPG), while Norrby IF have gone 9W 8D 6L in their last 23 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jonkopings Sodra at home or Norrby IF away?
Jonkopings Sodra's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jonkopings Sodra at home: 2.10 PPG; Norrby IF away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Jonkopings Sodra or Norrby IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jonkopings Sodra have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Norrby IF in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jonkopings Sodra and Norrby IF runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jonkopings Sodra's record when hosting Norrby IF specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Jonkopings Sodra
1
Draws
2
Norrby IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Norrby IF?
From 4 meetings on record, Jonkopings Sodra have won 1, Norrby IF have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jonkopings Sodra and Norrby IF last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2022, when Jonkopings Sodra 2-1 Norrby IF.
Who has won more matches between Jonkopings Sodra and Norrby IF?
Norrby IF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Norrby IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jonkopings Sodra 60%, Norrby IF 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Jonkopings Sodra) and 40% (Norrby IF).
On the defensive side: Norrby IF in 40%; Jonkopings Sodra have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jonkopings Sodra home games / Norrby IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jonkopings Sodra play Norrby IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Jonkopings Sodra's games and 50% of Norrby IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jonkopings Sodra vs Norrby IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Jonkopings Sodra's recent games and 40% of Norrby IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jonkopings Sodra and Norrby IF tend to score early?
Jonkopings Sodra have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Norrby IF in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Norrby IF defy the odds to beat Jonkopings Sodra 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Norrby IF beat Jonkopings Sodra 0-1 at Stadsparksvallen, Regular Season - 24, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jonkopings Sodra 1.27 xG and Norrby IF 1.00 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Jonkopings Sodra fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.00 / defence 1.06 against Norrby IF attack 0.85 / defence 1.17, drawn from 22/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jonkopings Sodra 43% | Draw 28% | Norrby IF 29%, with Jonkopings Sodra to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Norrby IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jonkopings Sodra 48%, Norrby IF 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (23 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Norrby IF's trading profile (23 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jonkopings Sodra 1.39 PPG, Norrby IF 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Norrby IF win broke the near-deadlock. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Norrby IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.