IK brage 2-1 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ostersunds FK at 34% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IK brage vs Ostersunds FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Ostersunds FK travel to Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen to take on IK brage. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 31 May 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IK brage stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
IK brage's home record at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Superettan appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ostersunds FK — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Ostersunds FK have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Ostersunds FK are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. IK brage register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Ostersunds FK in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for IK brage, 0 for Ostersunds FK and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with IK brage winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
IK brage in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Ostersunds FK in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 62% versus Ostersunds FK 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 60% | Ostersunds FK 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 0.90 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 0.908 / defence 0.897 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.930 / defence 0.677. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.129. Ostersunds FK's defence strength of 0.677 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 39 IK brage games / 39 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 32% | Draw 34% | Ostersunds FK 34%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 3.12 | Draw 2.94 | Ostersunds FK 2.94. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.84 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. This conflicts with form data: IK brage 60% | Ostersunds FK 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Wednesday 31 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 32% | Draw 34% | Ostersunds FK 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG IK brage 0.90 / Ostersunds FK 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 0.908 / def 0.897 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.930 / def 0.677 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Ostersunds FK xG
37%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
IK brage vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 31 May 2023 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Ostersunds FK?
IK brage 2 - 1 Ostersunds FK.
Where is IK brage vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Ostersunds FK part of?
IK brage vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 32% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both IK brage and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Ostersunds FK?
Record (2 meetings): IK brage 2W | Draws 0 | Ostersunds FK 0W.
What form are IK brage and Ostersunds FK in?
IK brage (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IK brage's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Ostersunds FK's defensive record (0.68x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus IK brage's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
32%
3.12
34%
2.98
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
IK brage xG
Total xG
1.84
0.94
Ostersunds FK xG
3.12
32%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
12%
8.00
14%
7.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 15.0 | 7.0 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are IK brage and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for IK brage and 0.94 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IK brage come into this having played 60 games, going 21W 18D 21L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Ostersunds FK sit at 0.75 PPG from 60 outings (10W 15D 35L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five.
IK brage carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
IK brage's home form reads 11W 8D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Ostersunds FK have taken 0.47 points per game from 30 outings (2W 8D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IK brage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IK brage are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 0.90 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IK brage have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Current Season
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 21W 18D 21L in their last 60 games (1.35 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 10W 15D 35L in their last 60 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Ostersunds FK away?
IK brage's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.37 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 0.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IK brage and Ostersunds FK runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ostersunds FK have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
IK brage's record when hosting Ostersunds FK specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
IK brage
1
Draws
4
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Ostersunds FK?
From 9 meetings on record, IK brage have won 4, Ostersunds FK have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when IK brage 2-4 Ostersunds FK.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 50%, Ostersunds FK 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (IK brage) and 43% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: IK brage keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; IK brage have failed to score in 27% of games; Ostersunds FK in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of IK brage's recent matches and 47% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IK brage vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of IK brage's recent games and 43% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IK brage and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IK brage defy the odds to beat Ostersunds FK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat Ostersunds FK 2-1 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 10, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 0.90 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.94 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. IK brage beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 0.91 / defence 0.90 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.93 / defence 0.68, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 32% | Draw 34% | Ostersunds FK 34%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual IK brage win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 60%, Ostersunds FK 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, IK brage arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.