IK brage 0-2 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as IK brage face Orgryte IS.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
IK brage welcome Orgryte IS to Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen in Superettan (matchday 21). Kick-off is Sunday 1 September 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
IK brage — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
IK brage's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Orgryte IS stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Orgryte IS have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — IK brage at 1.70 PPG versus Orgryte IS's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, IK brage have won 3, Orgryte IS 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 15 Apr 2024, ended IK brage 2–1 Orgryte IS — a IK brage win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
IK brage in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Orgryte IS in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 44% versus Orgryte IS 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 46% | Orgryte IS 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.49 xG and Orgryte IS 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 1.055 / defence 0.880 | Orgryte IS attack 0.972 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.241. Data: built from IK brage's last 50 games and Orgryte IS's last 50.
Result probabilities: IK brage 46% | Draw 28% | Orgryte IS 26%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 2.16 | Draw 3.64 | Orgryte IS 3.83. IK brage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IK brage as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: IK brage 30% (last 10 home games) | Orgryte IS 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, matchday 21 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 1 September 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 46% | Draw 28% | Orgryte IS 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG IK brage 1.49 / Orgryte IS 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 1.055 / def 0.880 | Orgryte IS attack 0.972 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: IK brage (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Orgryte IS xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IK brage vs Orgryte IS FAQs
What time does IK brage vs Orgryte IS kick off?
IK brage vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Orgryte IS?
IK brage 0 - 2 Orgryte IS.
Where is IK brage vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Orgryte IS part of?
IK brage vs Orgryte IS is a Superettan fixture (matchday 21) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 46% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both IK brage and Orgryte IS will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will IK brage vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
IK brage's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Orgryte IS's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus IK brage's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from IK brage's last 50 games and Orgryte IS's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
46%
2.16
28%
3.64
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
IK brage xG
Total xG
2.55
1.06
Orgryte IS xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
16%
6.23
6%
17.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.3 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IK brage vs Orgryte IS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are IK brage and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for IK brage and 1.06 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IK brage come into this having played 50 games, going 21W 10D 19L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Orgryte IS sit at 1.18 PPG from 50 outings (16W 11D 23L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: IK brage on 1.46 PPG, Orgryte IS on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
IK brage's home form reads 16W 4D 4L across their last 24 home games, a 2.17 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.46 PPG overall — IK brage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Orgryte IS have taken 1.17 points per game from their last 24 away games (8W 4D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IK brage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
IK brage are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.26 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
IK brage (Home) vs Orgryte IS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IK brage
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
❓ IK brage vs Orgryte IS Form FAQs
What form are IK brage and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 21W 10D 19L in their last 50 games (1.46 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 16W 11D 23L in their last 50 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Orgryte IS away?
IK brage's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 2.17 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.17 PPG.
Have IK brage or Orgryte IS been keeping clean sheets recently?
IK brage have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Orgryte IS in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from June 2021. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 23 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 May 2022, when IK brage won IK brage 4-0 Orgryte IS.
IK brage's record when hosting Orgryte IS specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IK brage
3
Draws
3
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ IK brage vs Orgryte IS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Orgryte IS?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, IK brage have won 4, Orgryte IS have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Orgryte IS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2025: Orgryte IS 2-2 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Orgryte IS?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 46%, Orgryte IS 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (IK brage) and 46% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: IK brage keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Orgryte IS in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ IK brage vs Orgryte IS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in IK brage and Orgryte IS matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of IK brage's recent matches and 50% of Orgryte IS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are IK brage and Orgryte IS matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of IK brage's recent games and 46% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IK brage and Orgryte IS matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of IK brage's recent matches and 75% of Orgryte IS's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orgryte IS cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over IK brage.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat IK brage 0-2 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 21, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.49 xG and Orgryte IS 1.06 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. IK brage fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Orgryte IS outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 1.05 / defence 0.88 against Orgryte IS attack 0.97 / defence 1.00, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 46% | Draw 28% | Orgryte IS 26%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Orgryte IS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 46%, Orgryte IS 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.46 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.