IK brage 1-1 AFC Eskilstuna – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates IK brage at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this IK brage vs AFC Eskilstuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

AFC Eskilstuna make the trip to Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen to face IK brage in Superettan, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Monday 11 July 2022 at 18:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

IK brage have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.

IK brage's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.

AFC Eskilstuna (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Superettan this season, AFC Eskilstuna have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for IK brage against 1.50 for AFC Eskilstuna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — IK brage lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with AFC Eskilstuna winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

IK brage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

AFC Eskilstuna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 60% versus AFC Eskilstuna 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 62% | AFC Eskilstuna 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 2.02 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 1.097 / defence 0.845 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.092 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.326. AFC Eskilstuna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.248 — this is suppressing IK brage's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 IK brage games / 42 AFC Eskilstuna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: IK brage 56% | Draw 22% | AFC Eskilstuna 23%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | AFC Eskilstuna 4.35. The model has a clear lean to IK brage (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates IK brage as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: IK brage 50% | AFC Eskilstuna 70% BTTS from recent games.

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