IFK Varnamo 1-1 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Varnamo at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Varnamo vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IFK Varnamo host Orgryte IS at Finnvedsvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 20 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
IFK Varnamo — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Varnamo at Finnvedsvallen this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Finnvedsvallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orgryte IS stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — IFK Varnamo at 2.20 PPG versus Orgryte IS's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for IFK Varnamo, 0 for Orgryte IS and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Jun 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
IFK Varnamo in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Orgryte IS in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 20% versus Orgryte IS 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (IFK Varnamo 25% | Orgryte IS 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.28 xG and Orgryte IS 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.991 / defence 0.747 | Orgryte IS attack 0.806 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.072 / away 1.143. Orgryte IS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing IFK Varnamo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. IFK Varnamo's defence rating of 0.747 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 20 IFK Varnamo games / 20 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 51% | Draw 29% | Orgryte IS 20%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Orgryte IS 5.00. IFK Varnamo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Varnamo as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IFK Varnamo 20% | Orgryte IS 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Monday 20 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 51% | Draw 29% | Orgryte IS 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 36% | xG IFK Varnamo 1.28 / Orgryte IS 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.991 / def 0.747 | Orgryte IS attack 0.806 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.072 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Orgryte IS xG
36%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs Orgryte IS kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 20 September 2021 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs Orgryte IS?
IFK Varnamo 1 - 1 Orgryte IS.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs Orgryte IS part of?
IFK Varnamo vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 51% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both IFK Varnamo and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Orgryte IS?
Record (1 meetings): IFK Varnamo 0W | Draws 1 | Orgryte IS 0W.
What form are IFK Varnamo and Orgryte IS in?
IFK Varnamo (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Orgryte IS (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates IFK Varnamo's attack at 0.99x the league average against Orgryte IS's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus IFK Varnamo's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
51%
1.97
29%
3.42
20%
4.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
1.97
0.69
Orgryte IS xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
4.99
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
6%
17.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 9.6 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 12.3 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 7.9 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 0.69 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IFK Varnamo come into this having played 20 games, going 12W 3D 5L for 1.95 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Orgryte IS sit at 1.30 PPG from 20 outings (6W 8D 6L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Varnamo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Orgryte IS — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
IFK Varnamo's home form reads 8W 1D 1L across 10 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.95 PPG overall — IFK Varnamo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Orgryte IS have taken 1.20 points per game from 10 outings (3W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Varnamo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.10 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Varnamo have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games.
Defensively: IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Varnamo and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 12W 3D 5L in their last 20 games (1.95 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 6W 8D 6L in their last 20 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or Orgryte IS away?
IFK Varnamo's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 2.50 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.20 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or Orgryte IS been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, Orgryte IS in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
IFK Varnamo
2
Draws
0
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Orgryte IS?
From 2 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 0, Orgryte IS have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2021, when IFK Varnamo 1-1 Orgryte IS.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IFK Varnamo see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 20%, Orgryte IS 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 10% for IFK Varnamo and 50% for Orgryte IS.
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo keep a clean sheet in 70% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Varnamo play Orgryte IS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 60% of Orgryte IS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Varnamo vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 10% of IFK Varnamo's recent games and 50% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Varnamo and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
IFK Varnamo have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Varnamo and Orgryte IS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo and Orgryte IS finished level at 1-1 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 21, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.28 xG and Orgryte IS 0.69 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.99 / defence 0.75 against Orgryte IS attack 0.81 / defence 1.21, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 51% | Draw 29% | Orgryte IS 20%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 25%, Orgryte IS 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, IFK Varnamo arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.