IFK Varnamo 1-0 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 42% as IFK Varnamo take on Gais.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 5 as IFK Varnamo welcome Gais to Finnvedsvallen. Kick-off is set for Monday 10 May 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 0.92 xG and Gais 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 1.031 / defence 1.078 | Gais attack 0.749 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.027 / away 0.836. Data: 4 IFK Varnamo games / 4 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 36% | Draw 42% | Gais 22%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 2.78 | Draw 2.38 | Gais 4.55. The draw (42%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.60. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.60 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Gais's lower xG of 0.68 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 42% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 22% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.60 combined xG gives a 22% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs Gais | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Monday 10 May 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 36% | Draw 42% | Gais 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 33% | xG IFK Varnamo 0.92 / Gais 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 1.031 / def 1.078 | Gais attack 0.749 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.027 / away 0.836 • Poisson stance: Draw (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Gais xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs Gais kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs Gais kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 10 May 2021 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs Gais?
IFK Varnamo 1 - 0 Gais.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs Gais part of?
IFK Varnamo vs Gais is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 36% chance of winning, Gais a 22% chance, and a 42% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both IFK Varnamo and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Gais?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Varnamo and Gais in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from IFK Varnamo's attack rating (1.03) and Gais's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gais's attack versus IFK Varnamo's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 21.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.0%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.76
42%
2.41
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.7%
Home win
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
1.60
0.68
Gais xG
2.76
36%
Home win
2.41
42%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.05
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
18%
5.42
9%
11.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.3 | 13.7 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.7 | 12.6 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.9%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 0.68 for Gais, a combined total of 1.60.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Pre-Season
Gais
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 2 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
IFK Varnamo's record when hosting Gais specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
IFK Varnamo
3
Draws
1
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Gais?
From 6 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 2, Gais have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2025, when IFK Varnamo 2-2 Gais.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and Gais?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as IFK Varnamo edge out Gais 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat Gais 1-0 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 5, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 0.92 xG and Gais 0.68 xG, a combined 1.60. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 1.03 / defence 1.08 against Gais attack 0.75 / defence 0.87, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 36% | Draw 42% | Gais 22%, with the draw its most likely call at 42%. The actual IFK Varnamo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 51% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.